Hizbullah, the Shia militia that has dominated Lebanon for four decades, is experiencing an unprecedented crisis that has transformed Iran's most formidable foreign proxy into a shadow of its former self.
The organization's decline became undeniable in September 2024 when rescue workers pulled Hassan Nasrallah's body from beneath 90 feet of rubble in Beirut following Israeli air strikes. His death—whether from blunt force or suffocation in his bunker—exposed a fragility that has only deepened as Iran itself convulses with internal unrest.
Financial Lifelines Severed
According to the Economist, Hizbullah's cash sources have collapsed dramatically. The abduction of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro severed a lucrative revenue stream from organized crime and narcotics. Under Maduro, Caracas had become a hub for illicit Iranian oil exports, Colombian cocaine transit, and money-laundering—all personally guaranteed by the strongman through a 2022 Iran-Venezuela cooperation agreement. Sources familiar with Hizbullah's finances confirm this funding has completely dried up.
The group has lost control of Beirut airport, once vital for moving weapons, personnel, and money between Lebanon and Iran. The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in 2024 further disrupted supply routes for quietly replenishing arsenals. Israeli strikes continue targeting Hizbullah positions, while assassinations have hollowed out leadership—even after a ceasefire. In November, rearmament commander Haytham Tabtabai was killed in Beirut.
Lebanon's new President Joseph Aoun has publicly called weapons outside state control "a burden"—a once-unthinkable statement. The political taboo surrounding Hizbullah's disarmament has evaporated, with television panels now openly debating the issue.
Tehran Takes Direct Control
Iran's response has been to tighten its grip. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now exercises direct authority over the group, ending whatever autonomy Hizbullah once enjoyed. All decisions on weapons, strategy, and escalation now come from Tehran.
Yet this dependence comes as resentment mounts even among Lebanon's Shias—Hizbullah's traditional base. Southern villages destroyed in the 2024 war with Israel remain in ruins. One Christian woman received a Hizbullah reconstruction cheque that bounced. "The Lebanese are not interested in liberating Palestine," says a Shia businessman. "Let the Iranians do it."
While Iran still pays fighters' salaries, it won't fund reconstruction. Instead, Hizbullah is reverting to guerrilla tactics: decentralized cells, tunnels, and smuggling routes modeled on Hamas in Gaza. The group maintains power through strategic ambiguity—neither disarming nor directly confronting the state.
"Weapons are the heart of Hizbullah," says Shia activist Ali al-Amin. The militia won't disarm while Iran's regime survives. But with turmoil in Tehran, that future looks increasingly uncertain.