As violent protests and economic instability rock the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey is aggressively preparing for the potential vacuum of power next door. With the spectre of the Syrian civil war still looming large over Turkish politics, Ankara is mobilizing a dual strategy: fortifying its physical borders against a mass exodus and reshaping regional alliances to secure its geopolitical standing.
According to exclusive reporting, Turkey is planning to establish a buffer zone on the Iranian side of the border if a worst-case scenario unfolds and the government in Tehran collapses, Middle East Eye understands. Top Foreign Ministry officials recently briefed lawmakers in a closed-door parliament session, indicating that Ankara’s primary objective is to contain any potential refugee wave within Iranian territory rather than allowing it to cross into Turkey.
The urgency of these preparations stems from the escalating violence in Iran. Turkish officials informed lawmakers that approximately 4,000 Iranians have been killed and 20,000 wounded in anti-government protests triggered by hyperinflation and currency devaluation. Determined to avoid a repeat of the migration crisis caused by the Syrian war—which left Turkey hosting millions of refugees—Ankara has abandoned its former "open-door" policy. The Defense Ministry has already strengthened the 560km border with a 380km modular concrete wall, defensive ditches, and hundreds of electro-optical surveillance towers.
However, the strategy faces complex demographic realities. Turkey hosts a massive population of refugees from the 2011–2024 Syrian civil war, and public sentiment is firmly against accepting more. Yet, a collapse in Tehran could displace Iran’s 12 million Azerbaijani Turks. If this specific demographic arrives at the border, Ankara may face intense domestic pressure to admit them, complicating its strict security protocols.
Beyond border defenses, Turkey is navigating a volatile international landscape. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has surged military assets to the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, amid discussions of precision strikes on Iranian officials. While Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has publicly opposed foreign intervention and urged diplomacy, Ankara is quietly preparing for the fallout of a wider conflict.
To insulate itself from these shocks, Turkey is pivoting toward new regional security partners. Ankara is reportedly seeking to deepen ties with a budding defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. While sources suggest it is too early for a formal "NATO-style" alliance, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to visit the Gulf, potentially in February, to discuss expanded security cooperation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
This shift represents a desire to build a "regional security architecture" capable of operating independently of Western powers. Experts note that this aligns with President Trump’s vision of offloading security responsibilities to local actors. By forging ties with Riyadh and Islamabad, Turkey aims to fill the power vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and prevent Iran’s proxy networks from regrouping, ultimately positioning itself as a central pillar of stability in a reshaping Middle East.
Photo: Middle East Eye