"Calm Waters, Unresolved Depths": Stelgias Warns of Stalled Cyprus Talks, Rising Iran Threat, and Fragile Turkish-Greek Détente
Stelgias described Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's visit to Ankara as a "very positive step" that unfolded largely as expected. He noted that both leaders deliberately avoided the most incendiary rhetoric that had defined the relationship in recent years. President Erdoğan refrained from pressing the two-state solution for Cyprus, while Mitsotakis avoided the inflammatory language — such as calling Cyprus "a dagger plunged into the side of Hellenism" — that he had previously used before the U.S. Congress and that his former Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias had routinely deployed with terms like "occupation."
"Both leaders spoke of good neighborliness, coexistence, expanding trade, and finding solutions through dialogue," Örmeci observed, setting the frame for analysis.
Stelgias put the warming in stark historical perspective: "In August 2020, we came to the brink of a hot engagement. There was even information that a hot contact occurred between Greece's largest frigate and the Turkish Navy. The German Chancellor had to exert enormous effort to pull the two countries back from the brink." He recalled Erdoğan's famous declaration at the time that Mitsotakis was "finished, null and void" for him. "From that point, we have arrived at today — a Greek Prime Minister hosted in a very warm atmosphere at the Presidential Complex."
However, both analysts emphasized that core issues — the Halki Seminary (Heybeliada Ruhban Okulu), Western Thrace, Aegean maritime boundaries, and the Cyprus question — were deliberately pushed to a "second plane" in favor of a positive agenda. Stelgias attributed this to converging strategic imperatives: Greece is entering an election cycle and does not want friction with Turkey while cultivating close ties with Washington; Turkey faces the chaos and uncertainty of the Syria situation, a looming Iran crisis, and severe economic pressures.
"As the late President Demirel used to say, 'Empty pots pressure and topple governments,'" Stelgias quipped, underlining that economic realities on both sides are driving the rapprochement.
The two sides signed several cooperation agreements and set a target to raise bilateral trade from $7 billion to $10 billion. Mitsotakis also invoked the historic Atatürk-Venizelos reconciliation — two leaders who faced each other on the battlefield yet forged a friendship, with Venizelos even nominating Atatürk for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Western Thrace and Minority Rights Question
When Örmeci raised the sensitive issue of Greece's refusal to recognize the Turkish identity of the Muslim minority in Western Thrace — noting that Turkey openly refers to its own Greek, Armenian, Jewish, and Kurdish minorities by their ethnic names — Stelgias offered a historian's explanation rooted in what he called the "insecurity of post-Ottoman Balkan nation-states."
He drew a parallel with Serbia, where upon exiting Nikola Tesla Airport, walls are covered with spray-painted messages declaring "Kosovo is Serbia" and "Albanians don't exist" — mirrored by similar nationalist denialism on the Albanian side. "This corresponds to a deficit of self-confidence," he argued.
For Greece specifically, Stelgias linked the issue to what he termed a "Cyprus phobia." He recounted how Cypriot Turks went from being classified as a minority — with an organization called KATAK (Cyprus Turkish Minority Institution) — to becoming a "founding constituent" of the Republic virtually overnight through Turkey's energetic diplomacy. "That trauma continues to haunt Greek policy on Western Thrace," he said.
On the practical level, Stelgias called the mufti appointment dispute "an absurd problem" that could be resolved quickly with political will — through a compromise formula where the community selects and the Greek state approves. "But it was never intended to be resolved," he said bluntly, attributing the deadlock to "nationalist stubbornness in Athens's decision-making mechanisms."
He rejected the notion that the mufti issue is a Greek counterpart to Turkey's refusal to recognize the Ecumenical Patriarchate's title, noting that Greece views Turkey's stance as "nationalist obstinacy" rather than a comparable institutional concern.
Halki Seminary: "Renovated as if Ready for September — Yet Nationalist Hang-ups Prevail"
One of the interview's most striking revelations concerned the Halki (Heybeliada) Seminary and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew's presence at the Ankara summit. Stelgias confirmed that Patriarch Bartholomew traveled to Ankara on a special flight for the official dinner following the Erdoğan-Mitsotakis meeting, meeting with both leaders.
"My latest behind-the-scenes information is that the Halki Seminary issue was raised at least by name during these discussions, even if not explored in great detail," Stelgias reported, noting he was still working to confirm this through a Greek journalistic source.
He described the seminary as undergoing "tremendous renovation activity — being refurbished as if it will accept students in September." Yet he said legal pretexts continue to block its reopening, particularly the requirement that 70% of students at private educational institutions must be Turkish citizens — an impossible threshold given Istanbul's Greek community has dwindled below 1,500 people.
"If there were genuine political will from Ankara, this could easily be circumvented," Stelgias argued, suggesting that doctoral students could simply be granted Turkish citizenship — a mechanism already being explored for the Holy Synod, where citizenship is being extended to bishops to address the dwindling number of electors eligible to choose a successor to Patriarch Bartholomew.
Notably, Stelgias observed that the Turkish press entirely ignored Bartholomew's Ankara visit — "most likely a deliberate choice to avoid irritating the government's nationalist wing" — while Greek media treated it as a secondary but significant development.
Cyprus Negotiations: "No Substantive Progress in 100 Days"
Turning to Cyprus, both analysts painted a sobering picture despite surface-level diplomatic activity. Stelgias analyzed the internationally unrecognized TRNC President Tufan Erhürman's recent meetings in New York, noting that Erhürman described his meeting with UN Secretary-General Guterres as "constructive and productive" while characterizing his encounter with Greek Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides as "constructive but unproductive."
Stelgias highlighted a significant message from Erhürman upon returning to Ercan Airport: the Turkish Cypriot leader expressed readiness to negotiate on the basis of the Guterres Document, even admonishing the Greek Cypriot press for spreading misinformation. "He said, 'I was initially the one taking a more negative stance on this, and now I'm the one sending this message — I'm ready to proceed on the basis of the Guterres document,'" Stelgias recounted.
However, he immediately qualified this with a critical observation: "On one hand, there's 'we're ready for negotiations'; on the other, there are preconditions — 'if our preconditions aren't accepted, we won't enter substantive negotiations.' Erhürman is trying to navigate very delicate balances."
Stelgias noted that Ankara, while no longer pushing the two-state solution in the strident tones of the Ersin Tatar era, has conspicuously *not* signaled a return to a federation-based framework either. On the Greek Cypriot side, Christodoulides is governing with support from the far-right ELAM party after his original coalition collapsed, further constraining his room for maneuver.
The analyst was blunt about conditions on the ground: "Not a single door has been opened in 100 days. People are suffering." He described nightmarish crossing conditions at the Ayios Dhometios/Metehan checkpoint, where drivers wait two to three hours during peak times, and the tiny British-era bridge at Pyla — the island's only bicommunal village — where tourist buses queue for hours in the summer sun.
Even confidence-building measures have stalled, he said, noting that Maria Isabel Holguin, the UN Secretary-General's Personal Envoy and former Colombian Foreign Minister, recently warned publicly: "We are unfortunately not making the progress we want" — a message Stelgias interpreted as a pointed rebuke to both leaders.
The economic toll is already visible: the depreciation of the Turkish lira, inflation in the north, rising prices, and a climate of insecurity — exacerbated by the recent detention of five elderly Greek Cypriots — have led to a significant drop in crossings from the south, devastating northern businesses. "The Arasta shopkeepers in Nicosia are at the point of tears. Tourists aren't coming, Greek Cypriots aren't coming anymore," Stelgias reported.
The Guterres Clock Is Ticking
Both analysts raised an issue they said virtually no one is discussing: the impending end of UN Secretary-General António Guterres's tenure. "The man is practically packing his bags," Stelgias said. "Will the new UN leadership be as enthusiastic about Cyprus as Guterres? Nobody is asking this question right now."
Örmeci suggested that IAEA chief Rafael Grossi appears to be the leading candidate for the post, which Stelgias tentatively confirmed while cautioning that "we live in Trump's world" and surprises remain possible.
With Greek Cypriot parliamentary elections scheduled for May 26 — and polls suggesting a potential "political earthquake" in the south — Stelgias expressed deep skepticism that meaningful negotiations could begin in such an environment.
"The Greek Cypriot side is simply playing for time, running daily propaganda about being 'ready to sit at the table immediately' while making zero progress on substantive issues," he concluded.
Iran: "Not a Good Omen" — British Bases on High Alert
Perhaps the most alarming segment of the interview concerned military developments around a potential confrontation with Iran. Stelgias revealed that intelligence reaching Cyprus — facilitated by the close relationship between the Republic of Cyprus and Israel — suggests that Netanyahu "got what he wanted" from his recent White House meeting with Trump.
"This is actually bad news," Stelgias said. "If Netanyahu got something, something will come of it."
He outlined three key Israeli demands visible in Israeli media before the Washington visit: military munitions, a policy aimed at destroying Iran's ballistic missile capacity alongside nuclear negotiations, and — most critically — Netanyahu's message to Trump: "You do what you want. I understand you have the Republicans on one side and the MAGA faction wanting isolationism on the other, and midterms are coming. But when I sense danger, I will strike Iran. Alone if necessary. I've done it before, and I'll do it again."
The analyst also confirmed reports from Cypriot local media that CIA officials had recently inspected Ercan Airport — apparently in connection with potential evacuation operations in the event of escalation.
While acknowledging that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently struck a more cautious tone in a CNN Türk interview, suggesting war was unlikely, Stelgias disagreed: "I would like to agree with Minister Fidan, but the reality on the ground does not show us that. With Netanyahu and a far-right government in power in Israel, I am not left with a very positive margin on the Iran issue."
Summarizing the discussion, Örmeci offered a three-part outlook: relative stability in Turkish-Greek relations with no war risk; no miracle to be expected on Cyprus negotiations; and serious danger on the Israel-America-Iran axis.
Stelgias's parting message was implicit but clear: the Eastern Mediterranean's interconnected crises — frozen diplomacy in Cyprus, fragile détente between NATO allies Greece and Turkey, and the gathering storm over Iran — demand urgent attention, not the nationalist stubbornness and political calculation that continue to define the region's politics. Time, he warned repeatedly, is running out on multiple fronts simultaneously.