As diplomatic efforts falter, the region braces for potential conflict amid competing pressures on Washington
The Middle East edged closer to a potential military confrontation on Monday as Israel issued a stark warning to Iran, the United States ordered a partial evacuation of its Beirut embassy, and Tehran weighed its options amid mounting pressure over its nuclear program.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his most direct threat yet to the Islamic Republic during a parliamentary session in Jerusalem. Speaking at a 40-signatures debate at the Knesset, Netanyahu warned that Israel would retaliate with devastating force if Iran chose to attack. "We are vigilant and prepared for every scenario. I have made it clear to the Ayatollah regime that if they make perhaps the gravest mistake in their history and attack Israel, we will respond with a force they cannot imagine," he said, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Netanyahu also pointed to the deepening military and intelligence cooperation between Israel and the United States, calling the alliance unprecedented. "The alliance with the US has never been closer, including between our security agencies and their intelligence services. Nothing like this has ever existed before," he told the Knesset plenum.
Even Israel's opposition appeared to close ranks on the Iran question. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, while sharply critical of Netanyahu's broader security record, acknowledged that a military campaign against Iran may be coming. "If this campaign comes, and it should come, we will all put everything else aside," Lapid said, adding that he would personally advocate for Israel's position internationally if conflict erupted, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Washington Orders Embassy Drawdown in Beirut
Hours earlier, Washington signaled its own assessment of the deteriorating security environment. The U.S. State Department ordered nonessential diplomats and their families to leave Lebanon, as threats of a potentially imminent American strike against Iran loomed over the region. A State Department official told Haaretz the move was deemed "prudent" to limit the embassy's footprint to essential personnel only, while stressing the mission remained operational. Staff were evacuated via Beirut International Airport as a "precautionary measure against possible escalation in the region," according to LBCI Lebanon News, as cited by Haaretz.
The New York Times reported Sunday that President Donald Trump is likely to order a limited strike on Iran in the coming days to force the regime into concessions on its nuclear program, with U.S. military planners considering targets ranging from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters to nuclear and ballistic missile sites. Sources cited by Haaretz indicated that if limited strikes and diplomacy both fail, Trump has told advisers he may consider a large-scale military campaign aimed at toppling Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime outright.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's scheduled visit to Israel remained uncertain, with a second State Department official noting the trip was "subject to change," Haaretz reported. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are nevertheless expected to travel to Geneva for nuclear talks planned for Thursday, with Oman serving as mediator.
Tehran Calculates Its Options
Inside Iran, the situation is generating serious strategic deliberation. Writing in the Iranian reformist newspaper Etemad, Jalal Sadatian, a former Iranian ambassador to the United Kingdom, outlined the key fault lines in any prospective deal — and the risks of miscalculation on all sides.
According to Sadatian, Iran's proposed negotiating package likely centers on limiting enrichment to 3.67 percent for peaceful purposes within a multilateral consortium framework, diluting its 60 percent enriched stockpiles, and permitting IAEA inspectors to resume monitoring — all contingent on receiving tangible sanctions relief in return. Washington's position, however, appears to demand far more, including a halt to all domestic enrichment, while offering only a non-aggression pledge without lifting sanctions. Iran has flatly rejected any negotiations over its missile program, calling that a red line.
Sadatian warned that even a limited strike could spiral unpredictably. Iran has threatened to strike U.S. military bases across the region — in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Bahrain — should its territory be attacked, a prospect alarming enough to prompt Arab states to lobby Washington against military action. "War is a blessing for no one," Sadatian wrote in Etemad, adding that any exchange of significant blows could drag the entire region into a broader conflagration, potentially drawing in Russia and China.
The question of whether Trump is genuinely committed to military action or using the threat as a negotiating instrument remains unresolved. Sadatian noted the pressure from pro-Israel lobbying groups in Washington pushing for maximum pressure, while Arab neighbors and European powers urge restraint. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned Monday that the world does not "need another war" and called for a diplomatic solution, according to Haaretz.
With Geneva talks scheduled for Thursday, the next 72 hours may prove decisive in determining whether diplomacy can still contain a crisis that has the entire region holding its breath.