Iran is facing sustained internal and external pressure, including widespread protests, economic strain from sanctions, and intensified domestic repression, yet the Islamic Republic’s leadership appears to be holding firm. Security institutions remain cohesive, and the overall trajectory points to a regime that is weakened but not nearing collapse absent outside intervention.
According to an assessment by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia continue to show loyalty and operational effectiveness, with no indications of significant defections inside Iran’s regular armed forces (the Artesh). The INSS assessment argues that historical precedent suggests mass protest movements alone are unlikely to trigger regime collapse, leaving Tehran under strain but broadly stable.
The analysis also notes a harder U.S. line on the political and military implications of Iran’s behavior since the crisis began, with Washington explicitly framing Iranian repression—alongside continuing military and nuclear advances—as potential grounds for military action, while simultaneously encouraging public pressure on the regime.
Two-Track Dynamic: Diplomacy and Military Preparations
INSS describes current U.S.-Iran dynamics as running on two parallel tracks: diplomatic engagement and military signaling.
On the diplomatic track, Tehran’s willingness to engage in talks with the United States is assessed as largely opportunistic—aimed at buying time and improving its strategic position—rather than reflecting a genuine attempt to reduce tensions. On the U.S. side, Washington has signaled openness to a diplomatic settlement focused on the nuclear issue, though the assessment notes uncertainty about whether this reflects a sustained or comprehensive strategy.
In parallel, the military track has intensified. INSS points to force movements, heightened intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) activity, and psychological signaling that, taken together, indicate preparations for a potential U.S. strike on Iranian assets rather than purely symbolic posturing.
Elevated Risk of Miscalculation
The INSS assessment characterizes the environment as a “pre-crisis shaping” phase, in which both deterrence and coercive diplomacy are in play—alongside a growing danger that miscalculation could trigger rapid escalation among the United States, Iran, and Israel.
The institute’s accompanying open-source tracking of regional deployments underscores a U.S. posture designed to be credible for both deterrence and offensive action, while also suggesting a preference in Washington to avoid being drawn into a prolonged conflict.
U.S. Force Disposition: About 40,000 Personnel and Expanded Capabilities
Based on INSS’s open-source assessments and media reporting, U.S. force levels in the region are estimated at approximately 40,000 personnel, supported by a mix of naval power, strike aircraft, ISR platforms, missile defense, and elevated logistics activity.
Naval forces highlighted include:
- A Carrier Strike Group centered on the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) operating off Oman, with reporting noting its AIS transponder disabled. The carrier air wing is assessed as fully embarked, including F-35C, F/A-18E/F, EA-18G, and E-2D aircraft.
- Eight Arleigh Burke–class destroyers deployed across the Arabian Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Red Sea.
Air power in the theater includes:
- Roughly 36 F-15E Strike Eagles, described as primarily Jordan-based.
- Reports also indicate F-35 fighter aircraft converging on the region.
ISR and enabling aircraft cited include the RC-135V, MQ-4C Triton, and E-11A BACN, along with additional activity from MC-130J and KC-130J platforms.
Personnel recovery and protection measures include deployed combat search-and-rescue (CSAR) assets such as HC-130J and HH-60 helicopters.
Missile defense has also been reinforced, with Patriot and THAAD batteries noted across the region.
Finally, logistics and sustainment indicators include elevated strategic and tactical airlift and refueling activity involving aircraft such as the C-5, C-17, KC-135, and KC-46—a pattern typically associated with maintaining readiness and supporting rapid operational tempos.
What Comes Next
INSS’s bottom-line judgment is that Iran’s leadership is under significant pressure but remains intact, while the U.S. posture reflects credible preparedness to act militarily without closing off diplomatic options. In this environment, the institute assesses that the risk is not only deliberate escalation, but also inadvertent escalation—driven by signaling, high-tempo ISR, and the proximity of forces in a volatile regional theater.