Senior Israeli defense officials are warning that the West Bank could face heightened volatility during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, despite the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, amid signs that worsening economic conditions and political decisions could push Palestinians toward broader protests and clashes with Israeli forces.
The warnings were delivered in closed-door discussions and reported by Haaretz, citing assessments by senior military officials who say Palestinians in the West Bank—who have so far not mobilized for mass unrest—may now be more likely to do so as pressures mount.
Israeli security officials have described Ramadan, which begins later this week, as a major “stress test.” While the past two Ramadan periods took place against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the military now assesses that the situation is more fragile four months after the cease-fire agreement, due to a combination of security incidents, government policies perceived as weakening the Palestinian Authority (PA), and a deteriorating West Bank economy.
In preparation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have reinforced deployments in the West Bank. Alongside 21 battalions already operating in the area, additional commando units and four more battalions have been added. The military activity includes stepped-up raids, destruction of militant infrastructure, and an increased pace of arrests. While the IDF says the main operational focus remains Gaza, Central Command has been instructed to prepare for limited, targeted attacks in the West Bank over the coming month.
One immediate flashpoint is access to Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque compound (Temple Mount). Under cabinet decisions approved by the defense minister, Israeli authorities plan to limit West Bank entry for Ramadan prayers to 10,000 women over age 55 and 10,000 men over age 65—far fewer than the PA requested. Israeli defense officials have long viewed tensions at the compound as a potential trigger for wider escalation.
Another driver of public anger is employment. Since October 7, 2023, permits for roughly 140,000 West Bank Palestinians to work in Israel have not been renewed, cutting household income and reducing PA revenues. Defense officials have supported a gradual, controlled return of some workers to ease economic pressure, but Defense Minister Israel Katz has so far refused to approve any easing, according to the report.
Security planners are also tracking broader regional scenarios, including the possibility of a U.S. strike on Iran. Israeli intelligence officials reportedly assess that if the United States attacks, Iran could retaliate with missile fire toward Israel and that the regional atmosphere could encourage “lone wolf” attacks by individuals seeking to signal support for Tehran.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces say they have seized about 15 million shekels (around $4.85 million) since the start of the year believed destined to fund attacks—an amount similar to the same period last year—with most of the funds said to originate in Turkey.
Alongside Palestinian militant threats, the IDF has expressed increasing concern over rising violent friction between Israeli settlers and Palestinians. Senior officers have reportedly acknowledged persistent failures to curb settler attacks, warning that a localized escalation involving firearms and casualties could strain security coordination with the PA.
Inside the PA, Israeli officials are also watching signs of instability: many PA security personnel reportedly receive only partial salaries, and the education system is operating at about half capacity—conditions the IDF links to increased street disorder among youth.
Israeli defense sources say additional policy steps—touching on holy sites such as Rachel’s Tomb and the Tomb of the Patriarchs, and moves to legalize unauthorized outposts—are viewed by Palestinians as violations of agreements and even de facto annexation, further eroding prospects for calm as Ramadan begins.
Photo: The source