The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing an escalating internal crisis, with recent events suggesting a dangerous trajectory towards civil conflict, according to an analysis by The Economist. The regime's brutal crackdown on widespread protests has not quelled dissent but instead appears to be radicalizing the populace, pushing the nation closer to a potential civil war.
The Economist highlights that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is failing to heed Machiavelli's advice to inspire fear without incurring hatred, as the killings unleashed to crush protests are fueling rage rather than submission. Human-rights groups report thousands of deaths, with some opposition channels claiming significantly higher tolls, painting a picture of a nation resembling a battlefield.
Eyewitness accounts describe widespread destruction, with banks, mosques, and security vehicles torched, and traffic infrastructure vandalized during protests. A young woman in Mashhad is quoted as saying, "It's already a civil war. We're just not saying it" . This sentiment underscores a hardening of divisions within Iran's multi-ethnic and multi-religious society, with both the regime and its opponents accusing each other of employing mercenaries.
The regime, described as “soaked in blood,” appears unwilling to compromise, having morphed into a security state with drones patrolling skies and internet blackouts crippling the digital economy. Initial expressions of understanding for protesters' economic plight have vanished, with all opponents now labeled as “terrorists”.
Amidst this escalating tension, royalists both inside and outside Iran are increasingly advocating for armed resistance, despairing of the army or police breaking ranks. The article notes that elders in peripheral provinces are taking to social media, brandishing rifles and vowing revenge for the crackdown, with some protesters considering swapping Molotov cocktails for machine guns. The Economist raises the question of whether protesters could morph into armed rebel groups, similar to what occurred in Libya and Syria, though it cautions against the potential for civil war, mass displacement, and destruction that followed such recourse to arms in the Arab Spring.
Furthermore, the nature of the protests has shifted. Historically, Iranian protests were often led by the middle-class, but now, those from sectors once considered the regime's backbone are participating. Many former supporters of hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are now backing Reza Pahlavi, the last shah’s son, and are openly anti-Islamic in their chants and hashtags . The voices of those advocating for peaceful reform are being drowned out, and fear of revenge killings is spreading, leading to predictions of capital and physical flight from the country. Turkey is even considering a buffer zone to guard against an influx of refugees.
While an American armada is massing off Iran’s coast, and some royalists abroad are seeking to smuggle arms and solicit Israeli help, The Economist warns that the fallout from outside interventions is unpredictable, citing the chaos that followed Western interventions in Iraq and Libya. The article concludes that Iran’s rulers will likely fight to retain power, and either way, chaos looms.
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