Military buildup in the Middle East accelerates as diplomatic efforts stall over fundamental disagreements between Washington and Tehran
In an opinion piece published by the Taipei Times, political scientist Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, warns that Iran could become the next theater where President Donald Trump attempts to reshape geopolitical realities through military force — but unlike recent actions in Venezuela, intervention in Iran could spiral dangerously out of control.
Trump has laid out stark terms for Tehran: accept a deal far tougher than the 2015 nuclear agreement he abandoned during his first term, or face massive military strikes. Washington's demands include the surrender of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, an indefinite halt to enrichment, dismantlement of remaining nuclear infrastructure, limits on ballistic missiles with full inspections, and an end to support for regional proxy forces including Hezbollah and the Houthis.
The threat is not rhetorical. Bremmer notes that Trump nearly ordered strikes weeks ago following Iran's deadly crackdown on domestic protesters. Since then, the US has deployed a carrier group, eight Navy destroyers, dozens of strike aircraft, and advanced ground-to-air defense systems to the region, establishing a defensive umbrella across the Middle East.
However, a fundamental impasse remains. While Iran might consider nuclear concessions to avoid strikes and ease its economic crisis, Tehran has ruled out surrendering its right to domestic uranium enrichment and refuses to give up its ballistic missile program. As Bremmer puts it, "the maximum Tehran could offer does not meet the minimum Washington has been willing to accept."
The analyst raises the alarming possibility that Trump's team may be considering a "decapitation" strategy — potentially targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. Trump's advisers have been emboldened by the successful Venezuela operation and the limited retaliation following the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani.
But Bremmer stresses that Iran is not Venezuela. The regime commands deeper institutional loyalty, larger security forces, and greater retaliatory capacity. Khamenei's elimination could trigger strikes on US bases and ships in the Persian Gulf, potentially spiraling into wider conflict. Oil prices could spike significantly, fueling domestic inflation ahead of midterm elections.
There is also a great-power dimension. Unlike Venezuela, regime change in Iran would cross a red line for both Russia and China, who receive drones and oil from Tehran respectively. Both powers would seek to impose costs on Washington to deter similar future actions.
Bremmer concludes that each successful gamble raises the stakes for the next one — and if this bet goes wrong, the consequences could reverberate far beyond the Middle East.
Photo: Gemini AI