A profound shift in the longstanding security alliance between the United States and Israel appears imminent following a recent meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Senator Lindsey Graham. As the current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—which guarantees Israel $38 billion in defense funding over a decade—nears its expiration in two years, discussions indicate that a renewal is far from guaranteed, signaling a potential end to decades of automatic American military support.
As analyzed in a recent opinion piece by the Jerusalem Post, the Prime Minister’s rhetoric regarding self-reliance likely masks a harsher diplomatic reality. According to the article, Washington is quietly moving toward terminating military assistance, a shift that carries severe consequences for the Jewish state. Former minister Nachman Shai, writing for the Post, argues that despite Netanyahu's public posture, this transition is being dictated by changing American political tides rather than Israeli strategic preference.
The controversy ignited after Prime Minister Netanyahu told The Economist that Israel might not require US military assistance within a decade. Senator Graham, a South Carolina Republican and close ally of President Donald Trump, seized on the comments. Posting on the social media platform X, Graham suggested that if independence is the goal, there is "no need to wait 10 years," proposing that the upcoming aid package should be the final one or that the phase-out should be accelerated over the next two years.
This potential funding freeze arrives at a paradoxical moment for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The military has recently launched "Hoshen," a new five-year strategic plan centered on integrating artificial intelligence, robotics, and advanced technologies into combat operations. The plan projects a procurement need of NIS 350 billion ($95 billion) in addition to the standard operational budget by 2030. With Israel facing significant economic deficits following the recent war, defense experts warn that the country cannot finance these modernization efforts without external assistance.
The push to curtail aid appears driven by President Trump’s broader "America First" doctrine. Trump has consistently demanded that US allies—from NATO members to South Korea—shoulder a larger share of their defense burdens to relieve the American Treasury. Consequently, the Republican Party, once a stronghold of unquestioning support for aid to Israel, is increasingly influenced by isolationist fiscal policies.
Simultaneously, Israel faces a deterioration of support among Democrats, a relationship Netanyahu has arguably neglected. With the midterm elections in November 2026 potentially threatening the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, Israel may soon find itself without the bipartisan safety net historically required to secure funding.
While previous Israeli leaders, such as Menachem Begin, have floated the idea of financial independence only to retract it later, the current political climate in Washington suggests this instance is different. If the aid pipeline is indeed shuttered, Israel may be forced to choose between implementing massive tax hikes or accepting a significant reduction in its military capabilities.