US Bets on an Economic Corridor to Lock in Peace
JD Vance’s tour of Yerevan and Baku was framed not only as support for the fragile Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, but as the launchpad for a wider east–west corridor that would connect the Caspian to Europe while bypassing Russia and Iran.
US officials presented the idea as a long‑term answer to the region’s chronic insecurity: if Armenia and Azerbaijan are bound together by energy, transport and technology projects, the cost of renewed conflict would rise sharply for both capitals.
At the heart of this vision is TRIPP – the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity – a branded transit and trade initiative that would modernize roads, rail and logistics links across the South Caucasus, tying Azerbaijan, Armenia and onward routes to Nakhchivan, Turkey and Europe into a single economic space.
Armenia: From Security Dependency to Economic Hub
In Armenia, the first ever visit by a sitting US president or vice president was presented as a historic signal that Washington is ready to back Yerevan’s post‑war pivot with concrete economic tools, not just rhetoric.
Vance publicly endorsed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s push to finalize and implement a peace and normalization agreement with Azerbaijan, arguing that Armenia’s integration into the new corridor depends on its willingness to “focus on the future, not the past.”
The most eye‑catching offer was a plan for up to about 9 billion USD in US‑backed civil nuclear energy investments, pitched as a “classic win‑win” that would give Armenia long‑term energy security while cementing a deep American economic footprint.
Alongside nuclear cooperation, US officials flagged prospects for high‑tech manufacturing, drone and chip exports and major infrastructure financing, all framed as pillars of Armenia’s role as a high‑value node in the corridor rather than a vulnerable frontier state.
Azerbaijan: Strategic Charter for Transit and Energy
In Baku, the economic corridor narrative was woven into a wider strategic upgrade, as Vance and President Ilham Aliyev signed a Strategic Partnership Charter that broadens ties beyond traditional energy cooperation.
The charter links Azerbaijan’s established role as a Caspian–Europe energy supplier with new overland routes through Armenia and Nakhchivan, making stability with Yerevan a precondition for turning the corridor into a reality.
US messaging stressed that, under the TRIPP vision, Azerbaijan stands to deepen its status as a key transit and logistics hub connecting Central Asia, the Caspian basin and Europe, provided it stays committed to the US‑brokered peace track.
Officials also hinted at expanded cooperation in digital infrastructure and potentially defense‑adjacent technologies, tying Baku more closely into Western supply chains and standards.
Reducing Russian and Iranian leverage
Beyond bilateral deals, the economic corridor is explicitly designed to dilute Russian and Iranian leverage over the South Caucasus by offering Armenia and Azerbaijan alternative routes and partners.
By promoting east–west connectivity that avoids Russian and Iranian territory, Washington hopes to erode Moscow’s traditional role as the region’s primary security and transit arbiter and to limit Tehran’s ability to pressure its neighbors through geography.
US officials have been careful to insist that they will respect other powers’ “red lines” even as they refuse to acknowledge the region as anyone’s exclusive sphere of influence, but the scale and branding of TRIPP underscore a clear strategic intent. Analysts note that tying Armenia and Azerbaijan into a US‑centered corridor, backed by large‑scale investments and joint ventures, effectively internationalizes the peace settlement by giving both sides something tangible to lose if tensions flare again.
High Stakes for a High‑Profile Bet
Vance’s visit has been widely described by regional and Western observers as a turning point that could, if successful, pull the South Caucasus further out of Russia’s orbit and constrain Iran’s room for maneuver.
Yet the strategy carries risks: Russian resentment at losing influence, Iranian concern over being bypassed, Turkish sensitivities over genocide‑related symbolism, and the question of whether Washington can sustain attention and funding beyond a single diplomatic moment.
For now, however, the message from Vance’s tour is clear: the US intends to anchor Armenia and Azerbaijan not just in a peace agreement, but in a shared economic corridor that, by design, reorders the balance of power and connectivity in the South Caucasus.