The Levant Files

A week of intense cross-border fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan in mid-October has thrust Ankara and Doha into a high-stakes mediation effort aimed at halting a spiraling crisis. On October 9, suspected airstrikes hit Kabul , Paktika , Khost , and Jalalabad ; Afghan authorities blamed Islamabad . Two days later, Taliban forces mounted a ground assault on the Pakistani border district of Chaman , claiming to have inflicted dozens of Pakistani casualties, while Pakistan reported 23 soldiers killed. Islamabad, which did not formally claim the October 9 strikes, said subsequent operations had killed approximately 200 Afghan fighters; the Taliban countered that it lost nine. After clashes resumed in Spin Boldak on October 15, a 48-hour ceasefire took hold that evening. However, Pakistan launched another air raid on Paktika on October 17, killing eight people, including three national-team cricketers, according to BBC reporting. Afghanistan then pulled out of a planned cricket ...

Turkey’s fragile peace opening shifted into a new gear this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received DEM Party ’s İmralı delegation members Pervin Buldan and Sezai Temelli Sancar for the third time on October 30, following two symbolic milestones over the summer and fall. On July 11, the PKK announced its intention to lay down arms, and on October 26 it declared the start of a withdrawal from Turkey—developments that injected momentum into the inaugural meeting of the “Terror-Free Turkey” Commission. After that session, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş signaled maturity in the process, saying, “We are at the final report stage.” The moment remains precarious, warns Alpaslan Özerdem in YetkinReport ’s opinion article . Özerdem argues that Turkey stands at a fork in the road: continue to “act as if” it is making peace—or undertake the harder task of genuinely building it through transparent, inclusive, and democratic means. DEM Party’s readout of the October 30 meeting str...

On October 30, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz paid an official visit to Ankara , meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan . The talks underscored both countries’ shared strategic priorities within NATO but also revealed clear differences over democracy standards and the ongoing Israel–Gaza conflict .   Merz’s visit featured ceremonial pageantry, including a welcoming guard in historic Turkic state uniforms . After discussions with Erdoğan, the German leader posted in both Turkish and German on his official X account. In Turkish, he stressed the main theme of his trip: *“Germany and Turkey are close partners in NATO: Turkey is an important factor in almost all foreign and security policy issues that concern us. Today we are also discussing this strategic cooperation.”   In German, Merz addressed his domestic audience, reiterating that Turkey has yet to meet European Union membership requirements — particularly the rule of law and democracy benchmarks known as the...

The European Parliament ’s decision to fund a monument honoring the victims and missing persons of the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus has sparked sharp reactions, underscoring the island’s enduring divisions between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots .   The proposal, introduced during deliberations on the EU’s 2026 budget by Greek Cypriot MEP Michalis Hadjipantela , passed with a comfortable majority, backed primarily by Greek and Greek Cypriot representatives. Hadjipantela described the planned memorial as “a perpetual reminder of an open wound for Europe,” positioning it both as a symbolic political statement and a gesture of solidarity with Cypriot victims. Supporters say the monument, to be located at the heart of the European Union, will serve as a focal point for remembrance, awareness, and historical truth.   Hadjipantela urged that EU resources be allocated for its construction, stressing that “Europe must remember and stand by the victims of the Turkish invasion.”...

In what experts are calling either the dawn of clairvoyant journalism or the latest episode of “state-sponsored media magic,” Georgia ’s pro-government TV channel POSTV managed to announce the arrests of six opposition figures *before* police even knocked on their doors.   The miracle of preemptive law enforcement was short-lived online — the post was hastily deleted — but not before the now-famous social media card made its rounds, sparking outrage, ridicule, and uncomfortable questions about who really writes the scripts in Georgian politics.   According to independent news outlet OC Media , the Facebook post appeared on 24 October, complete with a neat headline dismissing the Rustaveli Avenue protests as “apolitical propaganda,” followed immediately by a list of specific individuals allegedly “arrested yesterday.”   Trouble is, three of them — Tamta Gogoladze of Droa, Nika Kvitatiani of Ahali, and Giorgi Lemonjava of Droa — were, at the time, still very much walking...

Fourteen years after NATO intervened to topple Muammar Gaddafi ’s regime, Libya remains unstable, deeply divided, and vulnerable to foreign interference. What was once a relatively stable North African nation has become a battleground where regional powers — often aided indirectly by global actors — compete for influence amid political chaos.   In his column in the Middle East Monitor , Dr Mustafa Fetouri writes that t he 2011 intervention, launched by France before the United States assumed command, ended with Gaddafi’s overthrow after eight months of intense aerial bombardment. Yet NATO had no strategy for rebuilding the Libyan state, leaving a dangerous power vacuum. Promises of democracy and civilian protection went unfulfilled, and for much of the West, Libya has slipped down the priority list despite the devastating civilian toll.   Washington’s current policy — or lack thereof — has raised concerns among diplomats and analysts. Senior adviser on African and Midd...

A decade ago, Western European media often depicted President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a “merciless sultan”—a neo‑Ottoman Islamist drawing Turkey into the orbit of Russia and Iran , and standing squarely against Western values. Relations were frosty: invitations to European capitals were rare, Western leaders avoided Ankara , and support during the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016 was tepid at best. While Erdoğan stressed that Turkey was vital for Europe’s security, European leaders focused primarily on democracy and human rights.   Today, that lens has shifted. Columnist Murat Yetkin notes that the political weight in Europe’s relationship with Ankara has moved “from democracy and rights to security.” This week illustrates the change: on October 27, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Erdoğan in Ankara to advance discussions on filling the Turkish Air Force ’s fighter‑jet gap with Eurofighter aircraft—a move Britain has backed for years, with additional jets sourced f...

One year after a catastrophic canopy collapse at Novi Sad 's main railway station killed 16 people, Serbia is bracing for major anniversary protests amid a political crisis that has deeply shaken President Aleksandar Vučić's government. The tragedy on November 1, 2024 , ignited a sustained, student-led protest movement that has evolved from a cry of grief into a nationwide challenge against what demonstrators call systemic corruption and state negligence . The year of turmoil has exposed deep vulnerabilities within a government that has long staked its legitimacy on large-scale infrastructure projects. Writing for The Guardian , Srdjan Cvijić, president of the International Advisory Committee of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy , described the Vučić government as resembling a " political Ponzi scheme : borrowing legitimacy through spectacle while deferring its collapse." Cvijić argues that the canopy's fall did not create the crisis but rather "exp...

High-stakes peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan concluded in Istanbul on Wednesday without an agreement, dashing hopes for a long-term truce and raising fears of renewed conflict between the two nations. Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, announced the collapse of the negotiations, placing the blame squarely on the Afghan delegation for obstructing progress on key security issues. The failure deals a significant blow to diplomatic efforts aimed at stabilizing the volatile border region, which has recently been plagued by deadly clashes. The breakdown of the talks, as detailed in the international media, marks the unraveling of a fragile ceasefire that had been negotiated by Qatar and signed in Doha on October 19. The Istanbul summit, mediated by Turkey and Qatar, was intended to build upon that initial agreement and forge a lasting peace. However, the dialogue failed to resolve the fundamental issues that have fueled the recent violence, which marked the wor...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed details of a major natural gas agreement with Egypt while testifying in his ongoing trial Wednesday, describing the arrangement as "historic" but noting it carries "complex implications" that require careful consideration. According to Israel Hayom , which first reported last month that Netanyahu was reconsidering the deal, the Israeli leader is now reassessing the agreement due to alleged violations of the peace treaty by Egypt. The news outlet revealed that Netanyahu, working alongside Energy Minister Eli Cohen , has been evaluating whether and how to proceed with the gas exports in light of Egypt's reported breaches of its obligations . "Until 7 p.m. I dealt with several matters, among them a gas deal that requires a decision," Netanyahu told the court during Wednesday's hearing. "It must be decided upon in the coming days. It is a historic deal. It has both positive and complex implic...

Turkey has officially begun training the newly formed Syrian armed forces under a landmark military cooperation agreement signed with Damascus in August 2025, marking a significant shift in the post-civil war regional landscape. The initiative combines comprehensive training programs, the provision of military equipment, and a gradual withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria. According to sources familiar with the matter, approximately 300 Syrian personnel — predominantly soldiers, with some police officers — have been enrolled in intensive training programs at two military bases in central and eastern Turkey since September. The courses mirror elements of the Turkish Armed Forces’ (TSK) own curriculum, covering commando tactics, infantry maneuvers, and combined-arms coordination. Turkish officials project that in the medium term, the number of trained Syrian troops could increase to at least 20,000. The program is a direct result of the August 2025 security agreement signed be...

Turkey is making fresh moves to reinforce its energy foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean through expanded cooperation with Libya. On Monday, Turkish Ambassador to Tripoli Guven Begec met with Libya’s Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul-Sadiq in the Libyan capital to discuss joint ventures in oil, gas, and broader energy projects. Both the Libyan Energy Ministry and the Turkish Embassy announced the meeting, emphasizing the importance of closer institutional collaboration between the two nations to advance mutual energy interests. As reported by Ezgi Akin for Al Monitor, the talks come amid Ankara’s drive to reduce its dependence on foreign energy imports and secure access to hydrocarbon resources off the Libyan coast. Libya’s Eastern Mediterranean waters are widely believed to hold untapped oil and natural gas reserves, making them a critical frontier for Turkey’s long-term energy strategy. The Turkish government has signed multiple memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with Tripoli in ...

The Turkish Football Federation (TFF) has found itself at the center of a massive betting scandal after its president, İbrahim Hacıosmanoğlu, revealed that a significant number of professional referees have been involved in online betting activities. Following these revelations, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office announced that it will formally request all documents and evidence from the TFF as part of a widening investigation. According to T24 , the Prosecutor’s Office has taken the president’s statements as an official notice and will delve deeper into the matter, including the possibility of illegal betting operations. Meanwhile, TFF has been conducting a separate internal inquiry in collaboration with the Ministry of Youth and Sports , focusing on legal betting platforms. The dual investigations highlight the seriousness of the allegations and the potential for long-term consequences for Turkish football. The scandal first surfaced after an unusual match in the TFF 2nd ...

In late 1944, Greece stood at a crossroads. The Nazi occupiers were gone, leaving behind a power vacuum dominated by the colossal Communist-led resistance, EAM-ELAS. With three-quarters of a million members and a powerful army, they seemed poised for victory. Yet, within a year, their movement was politically shattered and militarily defeated, setting the stage for a brutal civil war. How could such a dominant force be so completely vanquished? This is the central question explored in today's debate, revealing two powerful and conflicting narratives. Was this a story of geopolitical betrayal? Evidence points to the secret "Percentages Agreement" where Churchill and Stalin placed Greece firmly in the Western sphere, effectively sacrificing the Greek communists on the altar of Great Power politics. This was brutally enforced by Britain, first through political manipulation and then with tanks and aircraft during the bloody "Dekemvriana" in Athens. From this perspe...

Turkey’s approach to the Balkans has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade, evolving from soft-power-driven cultural diplomacy to a strategy centered on defense cooperation and economic influence. This shift has become increasingly evident in the context of the latest Kosovo-Serbia tensions , triggered by Turkey’s recent delivery of kamikaze drones to Kosovo . Though initially prompting sharp rhetoric from Belgrade, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić quickly softened his tone, easing the short-lived crisis. According to a report by BBC Turkish , Turkey’s role in the region today reflects a strategic pivot. In the 2010s, under then-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu , Ankara emphasized cultural and religious ties, promoting Turkish language education and supporting local communities through scholarships and restoration projects. However, following the 2016 coup attempt, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan increasingly emphasized economic investments and security partner...

Ankara and London have sealed a landmark defense agreement for the sale of 20 Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft to Turkey , with the first deliveries scheduled for 2030. The deal, valued at £8 billion (approximately $10.7 billion), was announced on October 27, 2025, during UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer ’s first official visit to Turkey since assuming office in July 2024. Starmer, accompanied by Defense Secretary John Healey and Royal Air Force Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth , inspected the aircraft at Mürted Air Base before meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for a formal signing ceremony. According to BBC Turkish , the agreement represents Turkey’s largest fighter jet purchase in years and is described by the UK Ministry of Defence as “the biggest combat aircraft export deal in a generation.” The Eurofighter Typhoon, jointly produced by the United Kingdom , Germany, Italy, and Spain, will bolster NATO ’s southern flank amid growing concerns over regi...