According to Al Monitor, Qaani's brief, low-profile visit involved meetings with leaders of Iraq's Shiite Coordination Framework, an umbrella of pro-Iran factions forming the ruling alliance, as he sought to advance a larger Iranian campaign to prevent its most reliable regional partner from splintering ahead of Iraq's November 11 parliamentary elections.
The secretive mission, marked by few photographs or official statements, represents a dramatic shift in Tehran's regional strategy following catastrophic setbacks across its once-formidable "axis of resistance." With Hezbollah weakened after devastating conflict with Israel, Hamas battered in Gaza, and Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime collapsed, Iraq has emerged as Iran's last remaining theater to recalibrate its Middle Eastern influence.
Iranian state media and Qatar-funded Al-Araby al-Jadeed reported that Qaani met senior militia leaders and political figures, urging restraint in both rhetoric and action to prevent internal feuds that could undermine the bloc's dominance. The commander called on key actors to avoid media conflicts and rivalries that could threaten Iraq's stability or weaken their collective power.
The intervention comes at a critical juncture. The influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has called for an election boycott, leaving the Coordination Framework—dominated by figures including Nouri al-Maliki, Hadi al-Amiri, and Qais al-Khazali—as the default Shiite power broker. However, the alliance is deeply divided over corruption, armed group control, and ties with Iran, while public frustration with political gridlock intensifies.
Iran's stakes in Iraq have never been higher. The country remains the cornerstone of Tehran's regional strategy, but the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically since the days of Qaani's predecessor, Qasem Soleimani. The regional network Tehran built over two decades is now severely strained: Hezbollah's capabilities were deeply eroded following war with Israel and leader Hassan Nasrallah's assassination; Hamas has lost operational depth; and Assad's fall severed Iran's logistical connection to Lebanon.
Compounding Tehran's challenges, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on the same day as Qaani's visit, stressing the "urgency of disarming Iran-backed militias," according to a State Department readout. The renewed American pressure underscores Iraq's position as a primary arena in the ongoing US-Iran rivalry.
Qaani's approach contrasts sharply with Soleimani's media-savvy style. Gone are the photo opportunities with militia leaders and battlefield tours. The absence of detailed reporting suggests an intentional shift toward operational discreteness, though the timing signals both urgency and high-level coordination.
Tehran's message appears twofold: unity and restraint for Iraqi allies, and persistence despite pressure for its rivals. Maintaining unity among Iraqi Shiite factions is essential not merely for political influence but for sustaining the logistical and financial arteries of Iran's broader network.
November's elections will test whether Qaani's intervention succeeded. A unified Coordination Framework could consolidate Iranian interests; a fractured one would deepen Baghdad's paralysis and invite further Western influence. For Tehran, the mission represents damage control—preserving a regional strategy amid shifting alliances and mounting external pressure as it scrambles to redefine its Middle Eastern reach.
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