A new phase in the complex Gaza conflict has begun with the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, brokered under the framework of U.S. President Donald Trump's peace plan. This initial phase, focusing on a ceasefire and long-term peace, culminated last Thursday, setting the stage for a prisoner exchange and raising hopes for a new regional dynamic.
According to an analysis by Konstantinos Filis, Director of the Institute of International Affairs and Professor at the American College of Greece, published on October 13, the agreement represents a moment of temporary relief for all parties involved. Trump gains a diplomatic success to leverage domestically, while the two-year bloodshed in Gaza is set to end. The agreement-framework, if fully implemented, could reshape the broader Middle East. Filis notes that even skeptics suggest that a successful outcome could advance the situation beyond the post-Oslo era.
The immediate aftermath of the agreement will see the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages and the return of remains. This process is expected to be lengthy, not only due to identification challenges but also because Hamas operatives, as a measure of self-protection, avoid modern communication methods, relying instead on messengers to convey the agreement's terms and facilitate releases.
For Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the agreement offers a chance to return hostages, fulfilling a widespread public demand, albeit with significant delays and human cost. He can frame the agreement within his own narrative, asserting Israel's ultimate control and benefiting from a phased implementation, allowing Israel, as the stronger player, to dictate subsequent steps. Initially, Israel maintains control over 55-60% of Gaza, and the long-term status of a security zone, whether within or around Gaza, remains unclear.
Hamas, despite the agreement, is unlikely to surrender its entire arsenal. However, rearmament under current conditions is deemed almost impossible. The group will have time to regroup, maintain its ideology, and potentially rebrand, changing its name but not its core views. Hamas may also look towards future elections to regain political standing or exploit the conditions of the past two years to radicalize Gaza's youth. Its current popularity is estimated at around 30% in the West Bank and below 20% in Gaza. Hamas will likely claim credit for achieving the ceasefire and, if the Gaza agreement sets a precedent for the West Bank, for bringing the Palestinian issue back to the forefront with a prospect of resolution.
The coming months will be critical. Key questions remain regarding the supervision of the ceasefire, the authorization and composition of an international peacekeeping force, on-the-ground administration, the coexistence of the Israeli army with the Palestinian population, the tolerance for sporadic ceasefire violations, and the conditions for transferring authority to a Palestinian administration. Trump's ability to act as both a catalyst and a deterrent will be crucial to prevent the collapse of his inherently fragile plan.
Photo: Gemini AI