TLF Special. Tehran's Vigilance. Why War with Israel and the US Remains a Real Prospect in Ten Points
In a recent insightful discussion as part of Nournews' "Gozargah" series, Brigadi
er General Dr. Hossein Alaee, a prominent expert in defense, strategic, military, and political affairs, delved into the evolving regional landscape and Iran's position within it. His analysis, particularly concerning the potential for a renewed conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran, underscores a persistent undercurrent of vigilance in Tehran. Alaee's remarks, coming after the "12-day war" and ongoing nuclear negotiations, highlight several critical factors that prevent Iran from dismissing the possibility of future military confrontation.
Unchanged Adversarial Posture
Alaee asserts that figures like Trump and Netanyahu have not removed the option of war with Iran from their agendas. This perception is rooted in historical actions and rhetoric, suggesting a consistent, aggressive stance from these leaders.
Lessons from the "12-Day War"
The recent 12-day conflict, supported by the US, significantly impacted Iran's strategic and psychological landscape. Tehran believes it showcased Iran's retaliatory capabilities and national cohesion, yet it also served as a stark reminder of the ever-present threat. The conflict, according to Alaee, solidified the belief within Iran that it successfully resisted aggression and demonstrated its capacity to target Israeli territories.
Demonstrated Iranian Response Capability
During the 12-day war, Iran's ability to respond with ballistic and other missiles reaching deep into Israeli-occupied territories was unveiled. Crucially, the effectiveness and precision of these missiles increased over the duration of the conflict, contrary to enemy predictions. This sustained and improving capability is a cornerstone of Tehran's deterrence strategy and a reason it takes threats seriously.
Enduring National Cohesion
The 12-day war also highlighted an unexpected level of national unity within Iran. Despite internal political differences, all segments of society, including many expatriates, stood against the perceived aggression of Israel and the US. This internal solidarity, confounding American and Israeli expectations of internal dissent, is seen as a vital component of Iran's strength and resilience in the face of external threats.
US and Israeli Focus on Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs
Alaee points to a decade-long pattern of the US and Israel designing, testing, and conducting maneuvers with weapons aimed explicitly at Iran's nuclear and missile facilities. This sustained preparation indicates a long-term strategic objective that Tehran cannot ignore.
US Strategy of "Peace Through Force"
Trump's stated approach of achieving "peace through force" is viewed with deep suspicion in Tehran. This ideology implies a readiness to use military might to achieve political objectives, directly impacting Iran's security calculations.
Israel's Existential Threat Perception
Netanyahu's rhetoric, particularly his statements regarding the "elimination of the Iran axis," is taken very seriously. Alaee frames Israel as a military state living by war, with a fundamental opposition to the Islamic Revolution's ideology, which challenges the legitimacy of a "fake state" formed with external support. This deep-seated ideological clash fuels the perception of an existential threat from Israel.
US Refusal to Reduce Regional Presence
Contrary to some expectations, the US has not reduced its presence in the Middle East, despite its strategic pivot towards China. Alaee argues that the region is vital for controlling China and, more importantly, for ensuring Israel's survival, which he states is "dependent on American force" and not on regional compatibility. This continued robust US military footprint reinforces Iran's war preparedness.
Perceived US and Israeli Intent to Dictate Terms, Not Negotiate
Tehran views past and present negotiations with the US as attempts to impose decisions rather than engage in genuine dialogue. Alaee emphasizes that "Americans... are not looking for negotiations; they are looking to dictate their decisions to the Iranian side at the negotiating table." This perceived lack of genuine intent in diplomacy keeps the military option on the table.
Strategic Importance of Deterrence Through Strength
Ultimately, Iran believes that demonstrating its unwavering national will and military capabilities is the most effective way to deter aggression. The message Tehran aims to send is that war will not achieve American and Israeli objectives, and the Iranian people will not sacrifice their development and independence for external desires. This steadfast resolve, underpinned by military strength and national unity, is what prevents Tehran from disregarding the possibility of future conflict.
Photo: Gemini AI