Turkish Cypriots are preparing to elect their new leader on October 19, 2025, with candidates vying for the largely symbolic presidential role. The election comes at a critical juncture, reflecting deep-seated concerns among the electorate regarding economic stability, the Cyprus issue, and the region's internationally unrecognized status. A total of 218,313 registered voters are expected to cast their ballots across 777 polling stations.
The two most prominent contenders are the incumbent President Ersin Tatar, former leader of the National Unity Party (UBP), and Tufan Erhürman, leader of the main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP). Other candidates include Osman Zorba (Cyprus Socialist Party) and independent hopefuls Arif Salih Kırdağ, Ahmet Boran, Mehmet Hasgüler, İbrahim Yazıcı.
In Sunday's night, The Levant Files will cover the result of the first leg of the presidential election in the isolated breakaway entity.
Voter Sentiments and Key Issues
Surveys indicate a strong desire for change among Turkish Cypriot voters. According to the recent surveys the most pressing issues for voters, in order of importance, are the economy, the resolution of the Cyprus problem, the healthcare system, political leadership, and infrastructure.
A central theme of the election revolves around the future of the Cyprus problem, with Tatar and Erhürman representing divergent approaches. Ersin Tatar, who has served as president since 2020, opposes federation-based negotiations with the Republic of Cyprus. Supported by Ankara, Tatar advocates for a "two-state model" solution, asserting the sovereign and equal statehood of Turkish Cypriots. He has stated that he will not return to the negotiating table with the Republic of Cyprus unless demands for "direct flights, direct trade, and direct contact" (dubbed "3D") are met.
Conversely, CTP leader Tufan Erhürman has pledged to resume official negotiations with the Republic of Cyprus, the last of which took place in 2017, if elected. Erhürman argues that a two-state solution is not a realistic approach to ending the economic and political isolation of Turkish Cypriots.
Turkey's Influence and Relations
Experts agree that regardless of who is elected, the new leader will aim to establish good relations with Turkey. However, Turkey's role in Turkish Cypriot politics has been a contentious issue. In the 2020 presidential elections, Ersin Tatar's opponent, Mustafa Akıncı, alleged threats to himself and his family via Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and demands to withdraw his candidacy. Both the Turkish Embassy in Nicosia and Ersin Tatar denied these claims. Tatar ultimately defeated Akıncı with 51.74% of the vote in the second round.
Turkey's involvement in the current election has also drawn attention. Numerous high-ranking Turkish politicians, including former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu and former Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, have visited the island to campaign in favor of Tatar.
Unrecognized Status and Historical Context
It is crucial to note that the entity referred to as the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" (TRNC), which will elect its new leader, remains internationally unrecognized by all countries except Turkey. This situation stems from the 1974 Cyprus de facto partition, when Turkey invaded the island following a Greek-backed coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece. The subsequent 1983 illegal announcement of independence by the Turkish Cypriot administration further solidified its isolation on the international stage. The international community continues to view the government of the Republic of Cyprus as the sole legitimate authority on the island, and UN resolutions have repeatedly called for the withdrawal of Turkish troops and the reunification of Cyprus under a bicommunal, bizonal federation.
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