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UK-Greece-Turkey Axis: Reshaping European Security and Energy Dynamics


The historic city of Cambridge recently hosted a pivotal UK-Greece Strategic Summit, organized by the Delphi Economic Forum, drawing attention to the evolving dynamics of European security and energy cooperation. This gathering, described as a "Davos-like" event, brought together leaders from both nations to discuss the future of the UK-Greece-Turkey axis within Europe. Mehmet Öğütçü, the sole Turkish speaker at the summit, highlighted critical areas for realistic, implementable, and mutually beneficial cooperation in security, energy, and technology.

According to an article by Mehmet Öğütçü, published by the Yetkin Report, the discussions in Cambridge underscored a significant shift in European security paradigms. Turkey's oil exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean are reshaping both energy and strategic balances in the region. The summit served as a laboratory for ideas on how the UK-Greece-Turkey dynamic will influence Europe's future. Öğütçü's presentation focused on the urgent need for Europe to redefine its concept of security, given the stark differences in threat perceptions among NATO members. For instance, Greece may view Turkey as a greater risk than Russia, while other nations prioritize issues like migration or economic fragility, leading to a lack of a common security understanding across the continent.

This divergence, Öğütçü argued, weakens Europe's deterrence capacity, as evidenced by recent conflicts in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Donbas, and Gaza, which have exposed Europe's vulnerabilities rather than its borders. The efficacy of NATO's Article 5, the cornerstone of collective defense, is increasingly questioned. European societies appear unprepared for war, with younger generations more concerned about the cost of living than security. Furthermore, actions such as arms embargoes against Turkey, its exclusion from the F-35 program, and sanctions for acquiring S-400 systems due to denied Patriot missiles, erode alliance solidarity. The distinction between unarmed weapons of the 21st century. The value of a currency or a software bug can now be more impactful than a missile's range or an army's might. Deterrence has evolved from military might to technological and information-based capabilities.

Cambridge discussions emphasized that European defense now originates from laboratories and data centers, not just traditional armies. Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space surveillance, and energy cybersecurity are at the forefront of this new security paradigm, with universities, R&D centers, and green energy fields becoming crucial defense architects. The stability of European security, it was argued, hinges on the balance and dialogue between the UK in the west and Turkey and Greece in the east. A crisis in the Aegean can impact the London stock exchange, and an energy disruption in the Eastern Mediterranean can affect Berlin's industry, highlighting geography as a geo-economic destiny rather than just a border.

The summit's prevailing view was that "defense is no longer about protecting borders; it is about protecting energy, data, climate, and technology." The combined strengths of the UK's technology and financial power, Greece's maritime dominance, and Turkey's regional deterrence could transform Europe from a weak link into its most dynamic security axis. Energy, in particular, was identified as the heart of new European security, serving as a key to both peace and deterrence. Öğütçü outlined five critical areas for energy cooperation:

1. Common Energy Corridors: The Turkey-Greece transit route is indispensable for gas flow from the Eastern Mediterranean, Caspian, and Middle East to Europe. The TANAP-TAP pipeline could integrate Eastern Mediterranean and Iraqi gas, with the UK playing a role as a financial, insurance, and trading hub.

2. LNG and Storage Integration: The integration of Greece's Alexandroupolis LNG terminal with Turkey's Marmara Ereğlisi, Dörtyol, and Saros FSRU facilities could create a regional energy security chain extending from the Balkans to Central Europe, with British energy companies as natural partners.

3. Green Hydrogen Corridor: Combining Turkey's solar and wind potential, Greece's European connectivity, and the UK's green finance capabilities could establish a Green Hydrogen Corridor along the Algeria-Turkey-Greece-Italy-UK route, crucial for Europe's 2040 carbon neutrality goals.

4. Mediterranean Electrical Interconnectors: Energy security should also be ensured through submarine high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables, connecting Israel-Cyprus-Crete and Turkey-Europe lines, with the UK as an investor and technology provider.

5. Critical Minerals and Battery Chain: Leveraging Turkey's boron, nickel, and lithium reserves, Greece's bauxite and nickel resources, and the UK's mining finance and trade expertise could establish Europe's own green industry supply chain, forming the infrastructure for a future "Green NATO."

Ultimately, the article emphasizes the need for Turkey and Greece to move beyond seeing each other as security threats. As NATO members and cornerstones of European security, their cooperation could limit Russia's access to the Mediterranean, strengthen Southeast Europe, and ensure stable energy flow to Europe. Confidence-building measures such as joint maritime and energy infrastructure security centers, regular search-and-rescue and disaster drills, joint renewable energy investment funds, and academic exchange programs are crucial. The UK can act as a facilitator, fostering a win-win partnership model that includes the European Union, encompassing not only security but also energy, finance, tourism, and culture. The Mediterranean, therefore, is poised to write Europe's new narrative, where security is achieved through information and cooperation, rather than weapons and competition. Turkey and Greece must find common ground in shared interests, energy, and intellect to transform the Mediterranean into a sea of peace once more.

Photo: Gemini AI