The European Union is experiencing a significant geopolitical shift, with the prospect of admitting new members by 2030 now a "realistic goal," according to the bloc's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. The urgency, officials concede, is driven by the need to project strength and stability in the face of shifting global dynamics, particularly following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This renewed momentum has injected life into a process that had long been considered moribund, transforming EU enlargement from a technical exercise into a strategic imperative. As reported by The Guardian, the European Commission recently published its annual report cards on ten aspiring nations, with the consensus being that "Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine and the geopolitical shifts make the case for enlargement very clear cut." Kallas emphasized that a larger EU is a "necessity if we want to be a stronger player on the world stage."
Frontrunners and the Eastern Shift
Among the candidates, the Western Balkan nations of Montenegro and Albania are highlighted as frontrunners. Montenegro, with its population of just over 600,000, is considered the most advanced in the accession process, with both countries receiving praise for their reform efforts. The small size of these nations means their entry is expected to have "no big financial implications" for the existing 27-member bloc, making their path relatively smoother.
The story of Ukraine's accession, however, is a different matter, one defined by wartime resolve and immense scale. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced his ambition for Ukraine to join the EU before 2030. Officials have lauded Kyiv for implementing sweeping reforms even while at war, with Kallas noting that membership could serve as a "major security guarantee." However, the sheer size of Ukraine’s pre-war population (41.4 million) and its massive reconstruction needs will pose tough choices for existing members, particularly those who are net recipients of EU funds. The process is further complicated by political hurdles, such as the Hungarian government's current blocking of the next step in Ukraine's accession talks.
Turkey's Decades-Long Stagnation
In stark contrast to the new energy surrounding the Balkan and Eastern candidates is the decades-long stagnation of Turkey's accession process. Despite formally starting negotiations in 2005, talks have been effectively frozen since 2018. The primary reasons for this standstill are Turkey's persistent democratic shortcomings, including concerns over human rights, the rule of law, and freedom of expression. The European Parliament has repeatedly urged a formal suspension of the talks, citing the Turkish government's failure to address fundamental democratic deficits. Furthermore, ongoing disputes with EU member states Greece and Cyprus continue to undermine any prospect of progress, leaving Turkey's EU aspirations in a state of indefinite limbo.
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