The seizure of El Fasher, the last army stronghold in Sudan's Darfur region, by the powerful Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been described as a "political and moral defeat" for the paramilitary group, despite being a significant military victory. The city's fall, following an 18-month siege, has been a turning point in Sudan's brutal civil war, leaving thousands dead or displaced and raising fears of a wider regional conflict.
The capture of the city last week has been followed by a wave of reported atrocities. Radio France Internationale (RFI) spoke to Professor Suliman Baldo, head of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, who warned that Sudan could now be on the brink of a de facto partition between its eastern and western halves. Reports have emerged of executions, sexual violence, looting, and attacks on aid workers in and around El Fasher, where communications remain largely cut off. The prosecutor's office at the International Criminal Court (ICC) has already warned that the committed atrocities could constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Professor Baldo, speaking from Nairobi, dismissed the RSF's military success as a triumph, arguing that the subsequent actions have destroyed any claim to legitimacy. "The capture of El Fasher is a military victory – but what followed is a total political and moral defeat for the RSF," he stated. He noted that the RSF's growing record of war crimes and crimes against humanity has led to worldwide condemnation, prompting the RSF's leader, General Hemedti, to announce investigations—a move Baldo views as an attempt to "contain the damage."
The RSF's victory was heavily reliant on sophisticated military equipment. Baldo highlighted the use of advanced Chinese-made drones and air defense systems, which effectively grounded the Sudanese Air Force and prevented the resupply of the army garrison. He pointed to the United Arab Emirates as the "main supplier of all types of military equipment to the RSF," suggesting the UAE played a major role in the developments leading to the city's capture—a charge the Emirates denies.
The violence in El Fasher has been particularly targeted against non-Arab communities, especially the Zaghawa, sparking comparisons to the 2023 massacre in El Geneina. While acknowledging the horrific, systematic nature of the crimes, Baldo does not believe there was an intention to eliminate a section of the population on ethnic grounds, but rather an act of revenge against residents who had resisted the siege.
Following the fall of El Fasher, fighting has rapidly shifted eastward into Kordofan, a rich and strategic region halfway between Darfur and the capital, Khartoum. The RSF's goal is to cut army supply lines and seize control of key roads, with fierce battles expected to continue.
Looking ahead, Professor Baldo predicts a scenario similar to Libya, with two rival governments controlling different halves of the country, rather than a formal secession like South Sudan in 2011. He believes the two generals, Burhan and Hemedti, are unlikely to agree to an unconditional humanitarian ceasefire, despite international pressure, due to their "militaristic mindset and the humiliation each has suffered at the hands of the other." The desire for revenge, he concludes, remains too strong.
Photo: Gemini AI