Israel’s long confrontation with Iran has entered a tense, quiet interlude, Israeli analysts say, following a year that saw dramatic blows to Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions and growing signs of regime fatigue. With leadership struggles in Tehran and pressure across Iran’s regional network, Jerusalem’s strategic community is urging vigilance to prevent any resurgence of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program or its proxy warfare capability.
In a November 1, analysis for The Jerusalem Post, David Ben-Basat wrote: “The struggle between Israel and Iran is not over; it has merely entered a cautious waiting phase. Israel must ensure that Iran never returns to that path again.” His argument, reflecting a distinctly Israeli point of view, frames the current moment as an opportunity to consolidate deterrence while preparing for the possibility of renewed escalation.
Ben-Basat traces the turning point to the January 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander whose influence blended military power, diplomacy, and psychological warfare. In his telling, Soleimani’s successor, Gen. Esmail Qaani, lacks both the charisma and the coordinating skill to manage Iran’s disparate Shi’ite militias. As a result, the “empire” that Soleimani helped build has shown cracks: mounting criticism in Iraq, a weakened grip by Hezbollah in Lebanon following Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination, and growing fatigue with Iranian influence in Yemen.
The centerpiece of Ben-Basat’s analysis is Iran’s nuclear program. He describes a precise Israeli-American operation in June 2025 that destroyed the Natanz, Fordow, and Arak facilities via a combination of aerial strikes, cyber warfare, and controlled explosions. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, publicly vowed that the destruction proved the need to secure a nuclear deterrent “at any cost.” Yet, Ben-Basat argues, reality has undercut the regime: scientists have scattered, parts of the logistical network have collapsed, and even Russia and China are keeping their distance, leaving Tehran more isolated under sanctions.
For Qaani, Ben-Basat contends, the loss of the reactors marked both a security and strategic failure. He cites recent attacks on Quds Force headquarters in Damascus and Tehran and the assassinations of senior figures, including Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and Iranian commanders in Syria and Lebanon, as evidence of deep Israeli intelligence penetration and the erosion of the regime’s sense of immunity.
Domestically, the analysis spotlights President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024, who has tried to project moderation and speak of reforms. Ben-Basat writes that Pezeshkian is trapped between Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards, his promises of openness offset by pledges of “resistance and justice.” The public remains skeptical, he notes, and the reactor destruction has become a symbol of national embarrassment.
From Israel’s perspective, the 2025 strike was designed not only to halt an existential threat but to change the rules of deterrence through decisive action. Ben-Basat argues that coordination with the United States—and a demonstrated willingness to act—exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities and reset regional calculations.
He concludes that while a new generation of Iranians increasingly sees domestic corruption and repression as the true adversaries, the regime will continue seeking ways to revive its nuclear project underground. For Israel, the task now is to maintain pressure, sharpen intelligence, and strengthen international coalitions to ensure Tehran cannot return to the nuclear path. In this cautious waiting phase, quiet does not equate to stability, and deterrence must be actively enforced.
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