The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, often referred to as the Levant and its surrounding areas, is facing a deepening crisis of instability along its southern and western flanks. A series of escalating conflicts, from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, are creating a vast arc of volatility that threatens regional security and humanitarian stability. Recent developments in Ethiopia, Mali, and Sudan paint a grim picture of renewed fighting, the rise of militant groups, and a catastrophic displacement crisis.
Ethiopia: The Pretoria Peace Accord Under Threat
In the Horn of Africa, the fragile peace brokered in November 2022 between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is showing dangerous signs of collapse. Authorities in Ethiopia’s Afar region have accused TPLF fighters of crossing into their territory, seizing several villages, and launching mortar attacks on civilians. This aggressive move is being condemned by Afar officials as an "openly destructive" breach of the Pretoria peace agreement, which had ended a devastating two-year war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
The renewed fighting in Afar, a region that borders Tigray and previously saw conflict spill over, stokes fears of a full-scale resumption of hostilities. Tensions have been further exacerbated by accusations that the TPLF is re-establishing ties with neighbouring Eritrea, a country with a complex and often hostile history with Ethiopia. The situation underscores the deep-seated political and ethnic divisions that continue to plague Ethiopia’s transition, transforming a localized conflict into a potential regional flashpoint.
Mali: Al-Qaeda Affiliate Tightens its Chokehold on the Capital
Further west, in the Sahel, the military government of Mali is facing an existential threat from the al-Qaeda affiliate, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The militant group has escalated its campaign by imposing an effective economic and fuel blockade on the capital, Bamako. By sealing off major highways used to transport fuel from Senegal and Ivory Coast, JNIM has brought the normally bustling capital to a standstill, causing widespread fuel shortages and soaring prices.
This unprecedented siege on the capital is viewed by analysts as a clear sign of JNIM’s growing territorial control and a strategic move toward its stated aim of government change. The group is attempting to leverage public discontent with the military junta, which has refused to negotiate with the militants. The crisis has prompted Western nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, to advise their citizens and non-essential diplomatic staff to evacuate, highlighting the severe deterioration of security and governance in the country. JNIM, formed in 2017 as a merger of several armed groups, aims to expel Western influences and ultimately govern the country, posing a significant challenge to regional counter-terrorism efforts.
Sudan: A Humanitarian Catastrophe and the Roots of Conflict
The most profound humanitarian crisis in the region is unfolding in Sudan, where the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created the world’s largest displacement crisis. The recent capture of el-Fasher in North Darfur by the RSF has led to the displacement of over 81,000 people, adding to the staggering total of over 9.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and 4.3 million refugees who have fled to neighbouring countries. Reports from the UN and aid agencies confirm mass executions, torture, rape, and sexual abuse, with the RSF implicated in atrocities that may amount to genocide.
The current conflict, which erupted in April 2023, is the culmination of years of political turmoil. The crisis began in December 2018 with mass protests that led to the April 2019 overthrow of long-time authoritarian President Omar al-Bashir. A transitional government, composed of military and civilian leaders, was established with the goal of guiding the country toward democratic rule. However, this transition was derailed by a military coup in October 2021, which consolidated power in the hands of the military and paramilitary leaders. The subsequent failure to agree on a framework for civilian rule and the integration of the RSF into the regular army ultimately led to the outbreak of the current, devastating civil war in April 2023.
The sheer scale of the displacement—with over 14 million people uprooted—places immense strain on neighbouring states like Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad, further destabilizing the entire sub-region.
A Spreading Arc of Instability
The concurrent crises in Ethiopia, Mali, and Sudan demonstrate a worrying trend of spreading instability across the African continent's northern and eastern belts. From the resurgence of a major civil war in the Horn of Africa to the successful siege tactics of an al-Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel, and the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan, the arc of conflict is widening. These interconnected crises not only represent a failure of international diplomacy and peacekeeping but also pose a direct and escalating threat to the security of the broader MENA region.
If you are interested in more details about the crisis in Syria, you can listen to the new Levant File podcast here.
Photo: Manus AI