By Bassem Rashed, PhD Researcher Specializing in European Affairs
Amidst a geopolitical landscape defined by escalating volatility and intense competition, Europe faces profound challenges regarding its political stability. Many of its nations are grappling with internal crises whose repercussions transcend national borders, negatively impacting the geopolitical power of the entire continent. These crises manifest in interim governments, the recurring phenomenon of caretaker administrations resulting from parties withdrawing from ruling coalitions, escalating friction between power brokers, and the rise of the far-right—whether in governance or opposition. This state of affairs adds further complexity to the European geopolitical scene at a time when the need for cohesion and unity to confront global shifts is more urgent than ever.
Internal Crises
In recent years, European nations have witnessed a marked escalation in internal crises that have led to political instability. In France, a severely fragmented parliament has resulted in an unprecedented succession of minority governments and prime ministers over a period of roughly two years. Similarly, Bulgaria held nearly seven elections between 2020 and October 2024 due to a sharp divide between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces, preventing the formation of stable governments.
The phenomenon of political fragmentation has extended to key nations like Poland, where Liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk faces difficulties in navigating a partnership with the newly elected conservative President, Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Since taking office last August, Nawrocki has vetoed several government laws—including a bill to provide financial aid to Ukrainian refugees residing in Poland—and has challenged Tusk’s centrist coalition over control of foreign policy, particularly Poland’s relations with the United States.
The Netherlands and Spain have also suffered from unstable governance. The Netherlands was managed by a caretaker government from last June following the withdrawal of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) from the coalition over migration issues, followed by the resignation of several ministers in August amid disagreements over the government’s policy toward Israel. This led to the government's collapse and snap elections—the second in two years—on October 29. In these elections, the centrist "Democrats 66" party, led by Rob Jetten, achieved a difficult victory with a slim margin over Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom. The process of forming a coalition government is expected to face significant hurdles given the ideological disparities between the parties.
Conversely, the Spanish government has been unable to pass a new budget for the third consecutive year, complicating the state’s medium-term economic planning and paralyzing its functional capabilities.
Furthermore, the participation or support of far-right parties in ruling governments has become a prominent feature of the contemporary European political landscape, including in Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden. In other nations, the far-right dictates the public agenda despite being in opposition; the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is the second-largest political force in the country, while the far-right in Austria continues to entrench its authority over the public discourse. These political shifts reflect a general trend toward greater polarization and tension, as seen in Romania, where the results of a previous presidential election—led by far-right candidate Călin Georgescu—were annulled amidst suspicions of Russian interference. Five months later, in May 2025, the centrist candidate Nicușor Dan was elected.
External Effects
National political instability in most European countries significantly impacts the European Union's ability to address strategic challenges and potentially undermines its role on the global stage in several ways:
1. Weakening Strategic Cohesion and European Unity:
Internal political instability directly contributes to weakening strategic cohesion and unity at the EU level, particularly regarding geopolitical shifts. Governments plagued by political and functional crises become preoccupied with achieving domestic stability and avoiding votes of no confidence, forcing them to prioritize internal files over European ones. The weakness of national governments hampers their ability to negotiate and reach compromises on EU policies, ultimately eroding overall European unity.
Moreover, internal fragmentation leads to policy paralysis or delays in crucial EU-level reforms. For instance, political gridlock in France impeded progress in fiscal reform negotiations and European defense initiatives. Differences within the previous German coalition delayed a coordinated response to energy security. Similarly, tensions within the Spanish coalition led to continuous concessions that delayed budget approvals, which are critical for EU collective funding programs. This obstruction hinders rapid decision-making and consensus-building within the EU, damaging its credibility and operational effectiveness.
2. Disruption of Key Alliances:
Escalating domestic political crises weaken the potential for sustaining or expanding key alliances within Europe. Despite France's pivotal role in driving geopolitical progress and shaping European defense priorities, its current political crisis directly threatens French security alliances, particularly its partnership with Germany. Without political stability in Paris, joint bilateral initiatives risk stagnation, including the Franco-German Defense and Security Council and major European industrial programs. This may force Berlin to act unilaterally or seek alternative alliances, undermining the EU's collective capacity.
Additionally, while strategic bilateral treaties France has concluded with Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, and the UK retain symbolic value, their practical impact depends on stability in Paris. In this sense, current instability undermines not only French influence but the European power structure as a whole. President Emmanuel Macron is likely to remain preoccupied with domestic politics at the expense of the European agenda in the coming months. This threatens defense spending commitments, continued support for Ukraine, budget adjustments, and the ability to implement the recommendations of Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness (issued September 2024 and reviewed last September), at a time when France and Europe need to increase investment in deterrence and resilience.
3. Erosion of Europe’s Strategic Autonomy:
Europe’s goal of independently protecting its security, technological innovation, and economic resilience has become vulnerable as key nations face leadership crises or political paralysis. This was clearly reflected in the recent crisis of the French government, which led to a decline in its influence over shaping EU military capabilities and escalating disagreements with nations like Germany regarding the sources of weaponry for the "Sky Shield" initiative. Some political circles describe this as a "leadership vacuum" within the Union.
Furthermore, the current German coalition led by Friedrich Merz faces difficulties coordinating the practical implementation of digital sovereignty, alongside conflicting approaches within the coalition regarding energy independence policies—specifically the reliance on fossil fuels versus the transition to renewable energy. This reflects a broader disagreement on balancing short-term economic stability with long-term climate commitments linked to the EU strategy, highlighting how domestic politics weaken the EU's ambitions to operate without excessive reliance on external actors.
4. Undermining the EU’s Global Influence:
Unstable governments and political polarization weaken the EU's credibility and its ability to act decisively on the global stage, even in the face of urgent strategic challenges related to defense and security. The distraction of key nations makes it difficult for the Union to present a coherent stance on critical international issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war or relations with China. This fragmentation of national interests produces inconsistent policies and weakens the Union's negotiating power in trade, security alliances, and diplomacy. It hinders major decisions, such as proposed initiatives for a joint €500 billion defense loan or the use of €230 billion in frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine.
On the other hand, internal instability fuels nationalist and populist movements that prioritize national sovereignty over collective European action. This trend toward "sovereignism" leads to fragmented policy approaches, obstructs the enforcement of the rule of law, and hampers the implementation of integrated migration or climate policies. With the growing influence of populist currents in European parliaments and governments—and increasing direct support for them from across the Atlantic—clashes between governments and EU institutions are on the rise. This complicates efforts to formulate unified and effective strategies regarding cross-border security, the green transition, digital regulation, and even democracy and the rule of law.
5. Stagnation of Economic and Social Policies:
Difficulties in forming coalitions and government instability often lead to delays or deficiencies in local reforms, impacting the EU's broader economic goals, including the European Green Deal and digital transformation initiatives. National gridlock in fiscal and social policies translates into fragmented implementation of EU-level programs, reducing efficiency and weakening the Union's ability to bolster its competitiveness and social cohesion both internally and globally.
Conclusion
In summary, Europe’s "stalled power" has become, to a large extent, a hostage to political crises within member states, particularly the major ones. This necessitates that national governments seriously rethink their approach and provide rapid, effective solutions to the fundamental challenges facing their citizens regarding employment, growth, and economic empowerment. This is the only way to gain support for the sacrifices necessary to confront current geopolitical conditions. Without this, the European Union's geopolitical engine will not function at full capacity if its internal political gears remain constantly broken.
Photo: Manus AI