The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, established in November 2024, is rapidly disintegrating as a wave of intense Israeli airstrikes and increasingly stark political rhetoric push the region toward renewed, large-scale conflict. Over the past 72 hours, the Israel-Lebanon border has witnessed a dramatic escalation, with Israeli officials justifying "proactive operations" as necessary to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and recuperating, a doctrine they describe as a lesson learned from the October 7 conflict.
The political temperature was raised significantly by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who declared on November 2 that Israel would "not allow Lebanon to become a renewed front against us" and would act unilaterally to ensure its security. He emphasized that while Israel reports to the United States, it "does not ask for permission" for its security operations. Defense Minister Israel Katz echoed this hardline stance, warning that "Hezbollah is playing with fire" and demanding that the Lebanese government accelerate the stalled disarmament process. Katz vowed that "maximum enforcement will continue and intensify" to protect residents of Israel's north.
These political warnings have been swiftly followed by military action. On November 2, an Israeli airstrike in the town of Kfarsir, Nabatieh district, resulted in at least four deaths and three injuries. The following day, two separate drone strikes targeted Hezbollah operatives. An attack in Al-Doueir killed one person and injured seven, while another strike in Aita al-Shaab killed a second individual. Lebanese Army Intelligence identified the victims as Hezbollah members, including Muhammad Hadid, a commander in the elite Radwan Force, who the IDF confirmed was working to reestablish the group's infrastructure in the Nabatieh region.
The renewed violence has exacted a heavy toll on the civilian population. According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, Israeli military actions have killed over 270 people and wounded approximately 850 since the November 2024 ceasefire began. The United Nations Human Rights Office has confirmed that at least 107 of the dead were civilians.
In Beirut, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has accused Israel of intensifying attacks in direct response to his diplomatic proposal for a more permanent resolution to the cross-border hostilities. Marking a significant shift in Beirut's approach, Aoun has instructed the Lebanese army to confront future Israeli ground incursions with force, following a recent Israeli ground raid in Blida. Meanwhile, the United States has increased pressure on Lebanese authorities, with US envoy Tom Barrack warning that a failure to disarm Hezbollah could lead to grave, unilateral Israeli action.
The core issue remains the compliance with the US- and France-brokered ceasefire framework, which required Hezbollah to vacate southern Lebanon and Israeli forces to withdraw from the border. Israel continues to maintain a military presence in five strategic hilltop positions and conducts near-daily airstrikes, effectively unraveling the agreement. With Hezbollah, which remains fully armed and funded by Iran, refusing to disarm while Israeli forces occupy Lebanese territory, analysts fear the current "controlled escalation" could rapidly deteriorate into a full-blown war if key political or military boundaries are breached.
Photo: Gemini AI