The findings, published in The Lancet in September, are detailed in an analysis by journalist Beatrice Farhat for Al‑Monitor, “Why Lebanon now leads the world in rising cancer rates.” The study, covering 47 cancer types in 204 countries from 1990 to 2023, found a 162% increase in new cancer cases and an 80% rise in cancer deaths in Lebanon over that period — the steepest climb recorded globally.
In 2023 alone, Lebanon registered an estimated 233.5 new cancer cases per 100,000 people. Data from the Global Cancer Observatory show 13,034 new cases in 2022, with breast cancer the most common, followed by lung and prostate cancers. Globally, The Lancet estimates 18.5 million new cancer cases and 10.4 million deaths in 2023, projected to surge to 30.5 million cases and 18.6 million deaths by 2050.
Ali Mokdad, a co‑author of the study and professor at the University of Washington, says Lebanon’s outlier status is largely explained by smoking. More than half of Lebanese adults smoke by some estimates, and almost everyone is exposed to secondhand smoke. WHO data put the national smoking rate at 34.1% of the 5.8 million population, among the highest in the world.
Parliament passed a ban on smoking in enclosed public places in 2011, but enforcement has been minimal. Cigarettes and hookah remain ubiquitous in cafés, restaurants, nightclubs and even some hospitals. Mokdad links this “tobacco pandemic” to surging rates of lung and pancreatic cancer, noting that smokers face several times the risk of developing the latter compared with non‑smokers, alongside rising cardiovascular disease.
Tobacco, however, is only part of a wider toxic environment. Years of chronic power shortages have driven reliance on private diesel generators; Human Rights Watch estimated 33,000 to 37,000 generators operating nationwide in 2023. Research from the American University of Beirut found generator-related emissions had tripled between 2012 and 2021. Open garbage burning, unregulated pesticides and industrial pollution add to the burden.
Lebanon is also living with the legacy of conflict. During and after the civil war, foreign companies reportedly paid militias to dump hazardous waste in quarries and landfills. Environmental groups have long warned that buried toxic waste threatens groundwater and public health. More recently, Human Rights Watch documented Israel’s use of white phosphorus munitions in at least 17 southern municipalities since October 2023, while studies show the 2020 Beirut port explosion released large quantities of harmful gases. Because many cancers appear years after exposure, experts expect additional cases in the future.
The country’s weakened health system is ill‑equipped to cope. Since the 2019 financial collapse, soaring hospital costs and medicine shortages have delayed diagnosis and treatment, undermining Lebanon’s previously strong record in oncology and specialist care.
Health Minister Rakan Nasreddine has questioned the precision of The Lancet’s projections, arguing they rely on models rather than complete national mortality data, especially since the National Cancer Registry stopped publishing in 2016. Yet he concedes the trend is worrying and should spur urgent action.
For Mokdad and other experts, the most immediate and achievable step is to clamp down on tobacco through enforcement of existing laws and aggressive public‑health campaigns, while longer-term solutions tackle air pollution, hazardous waste and the power crisis. Without swift intervention, they warn, Lebanon’s cancer surge risks becoming a permanent and deadly feature of its overlapping crises.