Iraq’s long-running debate over who controls the gun has taken on new urgency after a senior judge said armed faction leaders are ready to coordinate on restricting weapons to the state, even as reports of looming external strikes have rattled political and security circles and accelerated behind-the-scenes talks on heavy arms, drones and missile capabilities.
Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Iraqi officials and influential political actors received two extraordinary warning messages in the past two weeks — one from an Arab country and another from a Western intelligence service — pointing to “serious” indications of impending, wide-ranging military strikes inside Iraq. The first message, delivered by an Arab state described as having good relations with both Washington and Tehran, warned Baghdad it was dangerously close to a swift strike, compared in the report to the targeting of Hamas’s political office in Doha in September 2025.
According to the same account, the warnings suggested potential targets could include government institutions linked to Shiite factions and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), powerful financial and military figures, depots and sites for drones and missiles, and training camps. A subsequent “massive file” from a Western intelligence service allegedly contained Israeli-prepared lists with detailed information on faction leaders, covert operatives, financiers and front entities inside state institutions — intelligence Iraqi officials were said to find startling in breadth and precision.
The report said the warnings helped “change the equation” among leaders in the Shiite Coordination Framework, fueling a recent wave of statements calling to “confine weapons to the state,” while also seeking time and latitude to unwind armed capabilities within what factions described as a “national framework.” It described internal disputes over how any transition would be overseen, and which state body could credibly take custody of weapons amid US distrust of institutions seen as influenced by factions.
On Saturday, Faiq Zidan, head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, said he had urged faction leaders to coordinate “to enforce the rule of law, restrict weapons to state control, and transition to political action after the national need for military action has ceased,” according to AFP. The statement marked one of the clearest signals from a top state institution that some faction leaders are at least engaging with the idea of a state monopoly on force.
But the gap between rhetoric and disarmament remains wide. Kataib Hezbollah said it would only discuss giving up its arms when foreign troops leave Iraq, declaring that “the resistance is a right, and its weapons will remain in the hands of its fighters,” AFP reported. Other pro-Iran factions designated by Washington as terrorist groups also voiced support for limiting weapons to the state, while stopping short of committing to disarm.
US pressure is intensifying on multiple tracks. Asharq Al-Awsat reported that US defense assistance will hinge on conditions in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act passed on Dec. 11, including publicly and verifiably reducing the operational capacity of Iran-aligned armed groups not integrated into the security forces through disarmament, demobilization and reintegration, and investigating militia members operating outside the official chain of command. The report also noted the visit of a senior US defense official, Colonel Stephanie Bagley, and expectations that Washington is seeking a clear timeline.
The political stakes are rising as Iraq navigates post-election bargaining. AFP reported that the United States has demanded the new government exclude six groups it designates as terrorist organizations and move to dismantle them, while some of those groups have expanded their parliamentary presence and remain embedded within the PMF and the Shiite Coordination Framework — leaving Iraq caught between external threats, internal power balances, and a narrowing window to avert escalation.
Photo: Gemini AI