A recent analysis published by the pro-government Turkish think tank, the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), has cast a powerful spotlight on the new energy agreements between Turkey and the United States. Signed during high-level bilateral meetings at the 80th United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, these deals—covering long-term Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supply and strategic civil nuclear cooperation—are not merely commercial transactions. According to the SETA report, they represent a "strategic threshold" that fundamentally reconfigures Turkey’s energy architecture, foreign policy positioning, and economic power projection. The agreements signal a deliberate, multi-dimensional pivot by Ankara, aimed at transforming the nation from a vulnerable energy consumer into a key geopolitical actor capable of wielding energy diplomacy on the global stage.
The Anatomy of the Agreements
The core of the new partnership rests on two pillars: a massive, long-term LNG commitment and a strategic push into nuclear technology. On the gas front, the state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ secured a landmark deal with the American energy company Mercuria, committing Turkey to purchase approximately 4 billion cubic meters of LNG annually over the 2026-2045 period, totaling 70 billion cubic meters. A separate, shorter-term LNG agreement was also finalized with Woodside, adding another 5.8 billion cubic meters of supply starting in 2030.
Crucially, the SETA analysis highlights a key flexibility clause in the Mercuria agreement: the delivery points for the LNG are not restricted to Turkish ports but can also include regasification terminals in Europe and North Africa. This provision immediately elevates BOTAŞ from a national importer to a potential regional energy trader, granting Turkey significant commercial and diplomatic leverage in its neighborhood.
The second pillar is the Strategic Civil Nuclear Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). This agreement focuses on the peaceful use of nuclear technology, specifically targeting the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), technology transfer, fuel management, and new investment areas. This nuclear cooperation is viewed by the think tank as a direct strategic counter-move in the complex energy rivalry playing out in the region.
Turkey’s Strategic Pivot: Autonomy Through Multiple Dependencies
For decades, Turkey has grappled with a high degree of energy dependence, a vulnerability that has often constrained its foreign policy maneuverability. The SETA report argues that the new US agreements are a critical step in a broader strategy to overcome this "fragile energy consumer" position. By securing long-term, diversified supplies, Ankara is actively shifting its energy procurement channels away from the traditional Russia-Middle East-Iran axis toward the Transatlantic sphere.
This is not a simple replacement of one dependency with another, but rather an application of a sophisticated foreign policy principle: "strategic autonomy through multiple dependencies." Turkey’s existing energy portfolio is already complex, featuring the Russian-built Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant and TurkStream gas pipeline, alongside Azerbaijani gas via TANAP/TAP, and ongoing LNG contracts with Algeria. The US deals introduce a powerful new element to this delicate balance, significantly expanding Turkey’s maneuvering space and reducing the potential for any single supplier to exert undue influence.
The American Geopolitical Counterbalance
From Washington’s perspective, the SETA analysis interprets the agreements as part of a broader, increasingly visible strategy to use energy as a tool of geopolitical influence. By becoming one of Turkey’s primary natural gas suppliers, the US not only achieves economic gains but also secures a significant role in Turkey’s energy security.
The nuclear MoU is perhaps the most overtly geopolitical element. It is seen as a direct response to Russia’s deep technological foothold in Turkey via the Akkuyu project. The US is attempting to implement a "balancing policy" against the "nuclear technology dominance" that Moscow is close to establishing in Ankara. By offering SMR technology and cooperation, the US aims to prevent a single nation from monopolizing Turkey’s future energy mix.
In this framework, the US views Turkey not merely as a customer, but as a crucial logistical and political center for its energy diplomacy extending into Europe and the Middle East. The US strategy seeks to leverage Turkey’s geographic position to enhance the energy security of its NATO allies and partners, further integrating Ankara into the Western energy security architecture.
Beyond Transit: The Ambition of an Energy Trading Hub
The most ambitious goal for Turkey, as articulated in the analysis, is the transition from being a mere transit country to becoming a fully-fledged energy trading center capable of generating its own reference prices. The flexibility of the LNG contracts, allowing BOTAŞ to redirect American gas to European and North African terminals, is the commercial mechanism that supports this ambition.
The report stresses that achieving this status requires more than just pipelines and terminals; it demands the capacity for price determination, commercial flexibility, and the diplomatic skill to maintain a complex geopolitical balance. If managed correctly, the US agreements—particularly the LNG delivery flexibility—can propel BOTAŞ into the role of a regional "energy trader," a significant step toward the hub ambition.
Conclusion and Outlook
The SETA analysis concludes that the Turkey-US energy agreements are a watershed moment, demanding that Turkey view energy not just as an economic input but as a "power multiplier" at the center of its industrial and foreign policy strategies. The agreements provide the necessary infrastructure and geopolitical backing for Turkey to deepen its transition from a vulnerable state to one that actively conducts energy diplomacy.
However, the success of this strategic pivot is conditional. The analysis cautions that the cooperation must be managed with the right institutional mechanisms and must not lead to increased dependence on a single direction. The ultimate goal is to reinforce the principle of "strategic autonomy through multiple dependencies." If this balance is maintained, the US-Turkey energy partnership has the potential to transform Turkey into a major international actor that not only imports energy but also trades it and helps set the regional energy norms.
Photo: Setav