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Relations between Turkey and Israel are passing through one of the harshest periods in their modern history, amid the devastation in Gaza, sharpening Israeli military moves in Syria and deepening regional rivalries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stepped up criticism of Israel on global platforms, including the UN General Assembly, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has escalated his own anti-Turkey rhetoric. Trade ties worth around $9 billion have been restricted and Ankara’s explicit political support for Hamas as a “national resistance” movement has further strained ties.
Yet despite the poisonous political climate, a permanent rupture between the two countries remains unlikely, according to an analysis by Mehmet Öğütçü for T24. The article argues that, beneath the heated public exchanges, a hard layer of mutual strategic dependence and historical familiarity continues to bind the two states. It concludes that the real question is no longer whether normalization will happen, but whether Ankara and Tel Aviv are quietly laying the groundwork for it today.
Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel, and the two have long-standing cooperation in defence, intelligence, agriculture, technology and crisis management. The memory of doors opened in Ottoman and Republican Turkey to Jews fleeing the Spanish Inquisition and Nazi persecution still carries political and symbolic weight in both societies. Even during past crises, the architecture of the relationship never fully collapsed; security and commercial channels were rarely cut altogether. This history, Öğütçü contends, has created a “realpolitik” depth that outlasts the personal animosity now visible between Erdoğan and Netanyahu.
Realpolitik, in this reading, dictates that broken ties are patched up whenever strategic interests demand it. Both countries are described as the region’s most resilient middle powers, facing overlapping threats and opportunities they cannot manage alone. With Iran’s regional posture hardening, the fallout of the Russia–Ukraine war, shifting US priorities and a more contentious energy game in the Eastern Mediterranean, outright and lasting separation is portrayed as neither economically nor geopolitically sustainable. Washington’s leverage over both capitals further reinforces this mutual dependence.
In the current freeze, unofficial channels have taken on outsized importance. Former intelligence chiefs, veteran diplomats, trusted business figures, think-tank experts and diaspora interlocutors now sustain what Öğütçü calls an invisible “back‑channel table.” Their functions range from defusing rhetorical escalations before they trigger lasting damage, to mapping out low‑risk cooperation areas such as green energy, water management, artificial intelligence, agriculture, healthcare and cyber security.
Third countries are also emerging as discreet diplomatic staging grounds. Capitals such as Baku, London, Washington and Dubai provide neutral venues where Turkish and Israeli actors can meet away from the glare of domestic media. In this framework, official silence does not mean the end of communication; rather, it signals a shift in how and where that communication occurs.
The article sketches a roadmap for “quiet normalization.” It calls for a small, trusted back‑channel core team and thematic working groups in energy, water, defence, technology, AI and health. Regular, low‑profile meetings in third countries and a mutually agreed media “language protocol” to prevent rhetorical spirals are presented as practical steps.
Finally, Öğütçü argues that the relationship should be re‑designed around a 25‑year vision instead of short political cycles, emphasizing that these are “not romantic proposals but rational, implementable steps” dictated by both countries’ interests. Turkish–Israeli ties, he suggests, resemble a bridge that never fully collapses but sometimes retreats into silence, waiting for the right political wind. When that moment comes, he predicts, those who have quietly prepared the ground will shape the next phase of an enduring, if turbulent, partnership.
Photo: Turkish Presidency