By Dr. Hassan Merhej, Academic, lecturer, and expert in Syrian and Middle Eastern affairs
From a practical rather than ideological perspective, federalism appears today as the only political option capable of protecting Syrian communities and preserving their diversity. The country has emerged from a devastating war, and the central state, having collapsed under its own weight, cannot be restored using old mechanisms. In this context, it is crucial to clarify several points regarding federalism and the broader challenges facing Syria.
First: The center will not regain its ability to rule. The central system that governed Syria prior to the revolution effectively no longer exists. Furthermore, any attempt to reproduce it by force or through top-down settlements will automatically lead to a resumption of conflict, because the structure that collapsed was built on coercion, not legitimacy. In other words, any attempt to forcibly reassemble Syria under a unified authority will simply reproduce the very dynamics that led to the war.
Second: Federalism addresses the roots of the conflict, not just its symptoms. Syrian identities—whether religious, national, or regional—can no longer be erased. This is not a political choice but a social reality following years of sectarian violence and displacement. Federalism grants each component a political space that guarantees its "identity security" and provides local institutions to address its existential fears. It offers the right to self-determination within the state, not outside of it, which ultimately limits the potential for extremism.
Third: Federalism neutralizes extremist actors. When groups are not permitted to represent themselves through the law, representation shifts to arms. Thus, federalism is the only formula that strips legitimacy from extremist factions and provides communities with alternative political tools. It prevents Salafi-Jihadist forces from exploiting the fears of the Sunnis, and prevents vengeful forces from targeting Alawites and other minorities. In this sense, it is a tool for security stability before it is a tool for constitutional arrangement.
Fourth: From the perspective of U.S. national security, federalism prevents collapse and limits Iranian, Russian, and Turkish influence. The approach of a "centrally united Syria" necessarily serves Moscow, Tehran, and Ankara, because the central governance model is the only one these powers can control through a compliant security elite. Federalism, however, establishes local authorities that cannot be subjugated by a single external power. It creates a balance that prevents the re-monopolization of violence and fosters local partnerships that the United States can engage with without going through the regime, Russia, or others. It is, therefore, a political formula that limits Iranian, Turkish, and Russian expansion in the long term.
Fifth: Federalism is the only path to genuine economic recovery. The Syrian economy today is an economy of regions, not a state economy. Without a legal system that legitimizes this reality and transforms it into a stable production structure, no reconstruction plan can succeed. Within this framework, federalism grants each region the ability to manage its resources, attract investment, and produce a diverse economy that is not held hostage by a bankrupt or corrupt center. Reconstruction requires local stability, not central promises.
Sixth: Federalism empowers Syrians to build a nation based on freedom, not coercion. The right to self-determination here is not a recipe for partition, but a guarantee that Syrians will not return to a forced rule that imposes a single political identity upon them. It is a right ensuring that a religious identity is not imposed on non-believers, that a takfiri discourse is not imposed on minorities, and that a single national project is not imposed on all groups. It is a formula that produces voluntary unity, not oppressive unity.
A Conclusion Addressed to Decision-Makers in Washington
Federalism is not an anti-regime project, nor a minority demand, nor a separatist vision. It is simply the only way to halt the ongoing collapse, achieve political and security stability, reduce the influence of extremist and regional actors, and create a structure viable for reconstruction.
Ignoring the reality of Syrian identities means reproducing the war. Recognizing and organizing this reality within a constitutional federation is the only path to rebuilding a nation that relies on free choice, not coercion.
*Published in Rai Al-Youm on 3 December 2024 and translated to English by The Levant Files for its readers.
Photo: NASA