According to Ezgi Akin, writing for Al-Monitor, the recent Lebanon-Cyprus maritime and exclusive economic zone agreements have further deepened Turkey and Turkish Cypriots' isolation in the region. The November 26 accord between Nicosia and Beirut marks Cyprus's third such agreement with regional neighbors, following deals with Egypt in 2003 and Israel in 2010—all signed over Ankara's objections.
Here's why a Turkish-Syrian maritime deal would change everything.
First, it would legitimize Turkey's claims to substantial portions of the Eastern Mediterranean, challenging the legal framework being constructed by its rivals. Turkey has long argued that any unilateral maritime delimitation by the Republic of Cyprus ignores the rights of Turkish Cypriots and lacks international legitimacy. A deal with Syria would provide Ankara with its own bilateral agreement to counter the expanding web of accords excluding it.
Second, such an agreement could disrupt planned energy infrastructure projects. A recent Washington summit brought together energy ministers from Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and the United States, signaling American support for an energy architecture that explicitly excludes Turkey. The U.S. State Department emphasized goals of "diversifying the region's energy supplies by reducing reliance on malign actors"—language widely interpreted as targeting both Russia and Turkey.
Third, it would reassert Turkey's role as an indispensable regional player in any future hydrocarbon development. "A maritime exclusive economic zone deal with Syria would be suitable and significant," Gulru Gezer, a former diplomat with Ankara-based think tank Foreign Policy Institute, told Al-Monitor. She warned that without a countermove, more delimitation agreements designed to limit Turkey's influence will follow.
"Unless Ankara makes a countermove, more such agreements will follow," Gezer said. "The aim is to limit Turkey's influence in the Eastern Mediterranean."
Turkey's ruling party has already signaled its frustration with the current trajectory. "This agreement is completely illegal," declared Omer Celik, the party's spokesman, referring to the Lebanon-Cyprus deal and calling it "an attempt to usurp the sovereign rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus."
Earlier this year, Turkey's Transportation Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu suggested Ankara intends to pursue a maritime deal with Damascus. Greece and Cyprus immediately objected, arguing Syria's transitional government lacks legal authority to sign international agreements.
An official Turkish source confirmed to Al-Monitor that while no active negotiations are underway, the door remains open. "Turkey is ready to address the delimitation of maritime jurisdictions with all relevant coastal states it recognizes, in a fair and equitable manner and in line with international law," the source stated.
However, significant uncertainties remain. Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute, noted that while such a deal would serve Turkish interests, "it is not realistic to expect Sharaa to be fully in Turkey's corner." Whether Syria's new leadership will align with Ankara's maritime ambitions remains the critical question.
Still, with few alternatives left, a Syrian maritime agreement may be Turkey's last best chance to rewrite the rules of the Eastern Mediterranean.