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A new survey by SONAR Research has placed the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) at its lowest support level in a quarter century, triggering unease inside the ruling Cumhur İttifakı (People’s Alliance) and prompting fresh debate over the future of the partnership between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP and MHP.
Speaking in a recent YouTube interview, SONAR President Hakan Bayrakçı said his company measured MHP’s vote share at 4.4 percent this month, describing it as “the lowest level of the last 25 years.” The slump comes amid MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s backing for the government’s “Terörsüz Türkiye” (“Terror-Free Turkey”) initiative, including his role in enabling face-to-face contact with jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island.
Bayrakçı said public opinion on Bahçeli’s stance and MHP’s role in the process is sharply polarized. According to his account, a significant share of those who support MHP’s involvement come from the DEM Party electorate, followed by MHP and AKP voters. By contrast, he noted that many CHP voters are disturbed, particularly by the increased visibility of Öcalan in the political debate. Within MHP’s own base, Bayrakçı argued, support for the process is far from consolidated, citing strong backlash over the use of the phrase “founding leader” in reference to Öcalan.
Bayrakçı linked MHP’s decline partly to this internal unease, while emphasizing that AKP voters have taken a more cautious line on the issue. The survey also explored attitudes toward prominent Kurdish political figures. On the question of whether former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş should be released, 45.3 percent answered “yes,” a result Bayrakçı described as a cross-party trend. However, when the same question was asked about Öcalan, 77.9 percent said “no, he should not be released,” with only 9.1 percent in favor. “Eighty-eight percent of Turkey is extremely sensitive on this issue,” he said.
The poll further tested public reaction to the “espionage” allegations targeting Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his team. According to Bayrakçı, 53.8 percent of respondents said they do not believe İmamoğlu committed espionage, while 24.7 percent said they think he did. On party standings, he reported CHP holding at 35–36 percent, Zafer Party around 4 percent, and Yeniden Refah Party at 2–2.5 percent.
The MHP figure, however, is what has most unsettled Ankara. According to backstage reports cited by daily Cumhuriyet and T24 news site, Erdoğan and AKP insiders view the 4-percent band as a “serious risk” for the future of the People’s Alliance. In closed-door meetings, some AKP officials are said to have complained that “MHP no longer brings votes; on the contrary, it costs us votes,” arguing that economic grievances are blamed on the AKP while controversies over security and the judiciary are pushing voters away from MHP, upsetting the alliance’s internal balance.
Party strategists have reportedly warned Erdoğan that “elections cannot be fought with these numbers” and that the AKP is losing more votes than it gains from the partnership. According to the same accounts, advisers have laid out three main options: widening the alliance by opening the door to new right-wing actors; shifting to a looser model that preserves formal ties with MHP but allows alternative local arrangements; or seeking new partners to reduce MHP’s weight over the center-right space.
As discussions continue within the ruling bloc, the SONAR findings underscore both the fragility of MHP’s current position and the broader public sensitivity around the Kurdish question, justice, and security that now shapes Turkey’s political landscape.