TLF SPECIAL: US Strategy Signals End of 'Forever Wars' in Middle East: Turkey, Levant Face New Era of Self-Reliance

The "2025 National Security Strategy" (NSS) of the United States has unveiled a shift in Washington’s approach to the Middle East, moving away from decades of deep military and diplomatic engagement toward a policy of "Shift Burdens, Build Peace." The new doctrine, rooted in the "America First" philosophy, signals a strategic downgrade for the region, forcing key players like Turkey and the nations of the Levant to assume greater responsibility for their own security and stability.

The NSS, released in November 2025, explicitly states that the Middle East no longer warrants the prioritization it once received, citing the US’s emergence as a net energy exporter and the pivot to great power competition elsewhere. This strategic re-prioritization is the foundation of the "Shift Burdens" component, which seeks to transfer the primary responsibility for regional stability and security to local partners.

The End of the American Buffer

The most immediate consequence of this policy is the definitive end of the "forever wars" era. The NSS promises to protect core American interests—securing energy supplies and vital sea lanes—but "without decades of fruitless 'nation-building' wars". This non-interventionist posture is a clear signal to the Levant, including nations like Lebanon and Jordan, that the era of relying on a sustained, large-scale American military presence for internal stability is over.

For these countries, which have historically managed internal and refugee-related pressures with significant American diplomatic and financial support, the shift implies a greater need for self-reliance and regional cooperation. The strategy explicitly favors accepting regional leaders "as they are", marking a clear departure from previous US attempts to impose democratic or cultural reforms.

Turkey: A Transactional Kingmaker

Turkey, a NATO ally and a major power in the Eastern Mediterranean, emerges as a critical, albeit transactional, partner in the new strategy. While mentioned only once in the Middle East section, its inclusion is highly telling. The NSS suggests that Syria "may stabilize and reassume its rightful place as an integral, positive player in the region" with "American, Arab, Israeli, and Turkish support".

This single reference elevates Turkey to an indispensable partner in a potential regional stabilization effort, particularly concerning the Levant. It is a pragmatic acknowledgment of Ankara's established military and diplomatic influence in the Syrian conflict. The US appears willing to accept Turkey's regional influence and strategic autonomy—even where it has clashed with American interests—in exchange for its cooperation on specific, high-priority goals like Syrian stabilization.

This transactional approach extends to the Eastern Mediterranean, where the US is expected to adopt a more hands-off stance on the long-standing tensions between Turkey and Greece over maritime boundaries and energy rights. By reducing its role as a primary mediator, the US effectively forces the two NATO allies to find their own modus vivendi, a clear application of the "Shift Burdens" principle to a complex alliance dynamic.

Eastern Mediterranean: The New Economic Frontier

The Eastern Mediterranean is central to the NSS’s economic calculus, even if not named as a separate section. The strategy emphasizes that the region will become a source and destination of international investment in sectors "well beyond oil and gas—including nuclear energy, AI, and defense technologies". This is a clear nod to the massive natural gas discoveries in the region, which have reshaped alliances and competition.

The US interest is now focused on the diversification of global energy supplies and the commercial opportunities for American companies in high-tech sectors, rather than mediating every geopolitical dispute. The implicit message is that the security of these energy assets and transit routes is now a shared burden, with regional partners expected to take the lead.

The "Build Peace" component, centered on expanding the Abraham Accords and the successful negotiation of a ceasefire in Gaza, is designed to create a cohesive, economically integrated bloc. This bloc, which includes key Eastern Mediterranean players, is intended to be the primary counterweight to destabilizing forces, further reducing the need for direct American military engagement. The strategy's ultimate goal is to transform the Middle East from a "potential source of imminent catastrophe" into a "place of partnership, friendship, and investment".

Key Implications for Regional Actors

The "Shift Burdens, Build Peace" doctrine is a calculated move to reduce American exposure to regional conflicts while maximizing economic and strategic returns. For Turkey, the Levant, and the Eastern Mediterranean, this means a future defined by greater strategic autonomy, increased pressure for regional burden-sharing, and a new focus on economic and technological integration.

The success of this strategy hinges on the willingness and capacity of regional partners to step into the vacuum created by the receding American footprint, a transition that will inevitably be marked by both new opportunities for cooperation and heightened risks of conflict. The US is signaling its acceptance of a more complex, multi-polar regional dynamic, provided it is managed by local actors in a way that does not threaten American core interests.

References

The White House. (2025). National Security Strategy of the United States of America. November 2025. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf)