Grigoryan emphasizes the Service's unique focus: "To us, as a Service, the answer lies in our favorite four words – the Republic of Armenia. It is the essence of our uniqueness and our constant purpose." Operating in a "rapidly changing global order" marked by instability, economic competition, and AI challenges, FISA monitors threats 360 degrees across time zones. The report avoids classified details due to legal constraints but provides candid assessments to guide national strategy.
Armenia-Azerbaijan: Progress with Caveats
The report hails the Washington Declaration of August 8, 2025, initialing a peace agreement with U.S. President Donald J. Trump's involvement, rendering military escalation "highly unlikely" in 2026. Local incidents are also "unlikely," with "highly likely" advances in border delimitation, trade, humanitarian issues, and infrastructure unblocking. Bilateral connectivity with neighbors promises larger regional projects, yet Azerbaijan’s "Western Azerbaijan" propaganda—coverage up 36% post-Declaration—poses risks: "The intelligence collected by the Service indicates that Azerbaijan has... significantly increased this propaganda... which entails substantial risks for regional stability, security, and long-term peace." Azerbaijan's military budget rises 44% in 2026, outpacing other sectors.
Hybrid Threats and Global Ripples Impact Caucasus Stability
With 2026 elections looming, hybrid threats will "highly likely become more comprehensive, complex and large-scale." FISA defines hybrid warfare as "the overt and covert application of a combination of various means – military, economic, information – with a common intent... creating uncertainties, anxiety, paralysing the usual activity of state institutions." Expected tactics include cyber attacks on banks, elections, and grids; AI-fueled disinformation blending fakes with facts; agent activation; and economic barriers like export confiscations to sway voters. Targets extend to TRIPP project sabotage and defaming officials, aiming to delegitimize democracy.
A Russia-Ukraine resolution remains "unlikely," preserving sanctions risks for Armenia. Israel-Iran strikes post-12-day war "remains high," expanding Armenia's challenges in migration and logistics: "This, in turn, will expand the scope of security issues for the Republic of Armenia." Middle East clashes persist, with Syria unstable and Lebanon tensions ongoing. Armenia-CSTO ties stay frozen, challenging the alliance.
Economic Hopes, Broader Threats and Tech Shifts
Regional projects like Kars-Gyumri restoration and TRIPP offer "extensive economic and logistical opportunities" for trade diversification and border growth. Positive dynamics are "highly likely," raising escalation costs and enhancing competitiveness. However, "new economic, infrastructure and trade initiatives will continually be a target of... actors pursuing harmful aims," via physical limits or influence ops.
International terrorism grows, with ISIS active in 22 countries; Armenia risks transit use via visa-free access. Tech races intensify over AI weapons, drones, and minerals: "AI will highly likely continue limiting the role of the human on the battlefield... reshaping the commanders functions." Drones expand in counter-combat, unmanned ops beyond sightlines.
FISA prioritizes countering Azerbaijani intentions behind "Western Azerbaijanis" return and bolstering resilience against hybrids to secure peace gains.