From Russian Media's Perspective: Iran's Unprecedented Uprising Pushes Islamic Republic to the Brink
What began as a localized outcry from Tehran's bazaar merchants over the rapid devaluation of the Iranian rial has transformed into a nationwide uprising that challenges the very legitimacy of Iran's theocratic system. According to Kommersant, the protests erupted at the end of December 2025 due to the collapse of the national currency and a sharp rise in prices. As Gazeta.ru reports, the Iranian rial has plummeted to unprecedented lows at 1.42 million per dollar, while official inflation reached 42.5 percent by December—figures that have pushed ordinary Iranians toward the breaking point.
The economic collapse stems from years of international sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program, compounded by the aftermath of the June 2025 war with Israel. As Interfax notes, the government's December decision to raise state-subsidized gasoline prices through a progressive tariff system—with prices jumping from 15,000 to 50,000 rials per liter depending on consumption volume—delivered the final shock that set the bazaar aflame on December 28.
From Economic Grievance to Political Rebellion
Interfax, the news agency of one of the closest allies of Iran, quotes Yuri Lyamin, a leading researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, explaining the critical juncture: "The first major wave of unrest among merchants occurred on December 28. But it was short-lived, and demonstrations nearly ceased in early January. They flared again after another currency collapse on January 5." What followed has proven far more consequential. As RBC stresses, initial demands for currency stabilization and price relief rapidly escalated into broader calls for regime change and the overthrow of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
By January 8, the intensity of demonstrations had doubled: RBC reports that at least 156 protests occurred in 27 provinces on that single day—double the number from January 7 alone. As Meduza documents, by January 10, protests had been confirmed in 185 cities spanning all Iranian provinces, with the most intense clashes occurring in western provinces including Kermanshah, Ilam, and Lorestan.
An Elite Divided; A Society United
One of the most striking features of the current uprising is the participation of constituencies that have historically supported the regime. As RBC observes, small and medium business owners—the bazari class—have emerged as key drivers of the movement. This distinction carries profound historical weight: as the publication notes, the traditional merchant class played a central economic role in the success of the 1979 anti-Shah revolution.
According to expert analysis published by Gazeta.ru, Middle East specialist Alexander Kargin explains the unique threat posed by this broadened coalition: "These disorders differ from anything that has happened in Iran in the past. It's not just students or small business, but also major businessmen. Riots are very frequent in bazaars and markets. In the East, the market is the social meeting place and whoever controls the spirit of the market determines the community's agenda."
Kargin further notes that the Iranian elite itself shows signs of fracture. "On one side are conservatives calling for a tough end to the protests. On the other side are reformers led by current President Masoud Pezeshkian." As Gazeta.ru stresses, Pezeshkian has not supported the protests outright but "partially agreed with the protesters' demands" and opposed harsh suppression—a duality that reveals divisions within the ruling structure at the highest levels.
The Role of the Exiled Crown Prince
Central to the escalation has been the emergence of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, as a coordinating figure for the dispersed movement. As documented by RBC, Pahlavi issued direct calls for mass demonstrations on January 8 and 9, requesting coordinated protests at 8 p.m. local time. When the appointed hour arrived on January 8, neighborhoods across Tehran erupted in synchronized chanting, a phenomenon Lenta.ru confirms with reports of widespread demonstrations triggered by his call.
RBC details Pahlavi's strategic positioning: the crown prince now presents himself as a "unifying figure" capable of shepherding a transition from "tyranny to democratic rule," claiming to represent "monarchists and republicans, secular and religious activists, civilians and military personnel" united around principles of territorial integrity, personal freedoms, and the separation of church and state.
A Bloodied Crackdown and Internet Blackout
The regime's response has been characterized by escalating brutality. Fontanka reports that as of January 11, more than 60 hours had passed with the entire country lacking internet access—a dramatic step authorities undertook to prevent protest coordination. According to AP reporting cited by Fontanka, at least 203 people have been killed throughout the uprising, with an additional 2,600 detained.
Lenta.ru documents that Tehran's Mayor Alireza Zakani claimed protesters set fire to 25 mosques, damaged 26 banks, burned nearly 50 fire rescue vehicles, and destroyed 42 buses and ambulances. However, these figures—and indeed the scale of destruction—remain contested, with the internet blackout making independent verification impossible.
The deployment of security forces has grown increasingly severe. As Meduza reports, the regime has deployed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces to suppress protests, a rare step used only once during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini uprising. This deployment suggests authorities perceive the current unrest as an existential threat rather than ordinary civil disorder.
International Pressure Compounds Internal Crisis
Compounding the regime's difficulties is sustained international pressure. As Kommersant reports, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Iran of severe consequences if protesters are killed, stating: "If they start killing people as they did in the past, we will intervene." Trump characterized his threatened response not as invasion but as a "very, very strong blow to tender spots."
Fontanka details that Trump is now actively considering military options: The New York Times reported that Trump has been briefed on multiple strike scenarios, with military planners providing options ranging from targeted airstrikes to operations against regime decision-making centers. The very specter of American intervention has stiffened the protesters' resolve while placing the regime in an impossible position: harsh crackdown risks U.S. military action; restraint encourages further escalation.
According to Interfax, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf responded to American threats by declaring that Tehran would treat U.S. military bases and Israeli territory as "legitimate targets" for Iranian retaliation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as documented by RBC, promised that the Islamic Republic would "not back down" and dismissed protesters as "vandals" and "saboteurs" with foreign backing.
The Question of Regime Survival
As RBC notes, expert opinion remains cautious about the regime's immediate prospects. Vladimir Sazhin, a professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies, cautioned that "the regime has very serious forces that can suppress this in the most severe and bloody manner." However, Sazhin added a critical caveat: "Unlike the 2022-2023 protests, this time there is an element of external pressure through Trump's statements and threats. It's possible the U.S. could strike again at Iran, but not at nuclear facilities—rather at decision-making centers, particularly the IRGC and Basij militias. In that case, the regime's fate would be problematic."
Meanwhile, Dina Esfandiary, Middle East Lead for Bloomberg Economics, offered a grimmer assessment, predicting that "the Islamic Republic as we know it today is unlikely to survive until 2027. I really think there will be some change."
The uprising that began with desperate shopkeepers defending their livelihoods has evolved into a nationwide rebellion targeting the legitimacy of Iran's entire political system. As the internet blackout obscures the full scale of violence, and as American military planners prepare contingency options, Iran's Islamic Republic faces a convergence of threats—economic collapse, elite division, broad-based popular resistance, and external military pressure—that many observers believe may prove insurmountable.
Sources Cited:
Kommersant (January 9, 2026) - "Протесты в Иране: экономический кризис и угроза..."
Gazeta.ru (January 7, 2026) - "Протестующие заявили о захвате города и округа в Иране..."
Interfax (January 8-9, 2026) - "Беспорядки в Иране: обстановка накаляется" and "Президент Ирана обвинил Израиль и США..."
Interfax (January 9, 2026) - Expert interview with Yuri Lyamin
RBC (January 9, 2026) - "Могут ли протесты в Иране привести к свержению режима"
Meduza (January 10-11, 2026) - "В Иране 14-й день продолжаются протесты..."
Lenta.ru (January 7-9, 2026) - Multiple articles on Iran protests
Fontanka (January 11, 2026) - "Протесты в Иране: более 60 часов без интернета..."
Interfax (January 11, 2026) - "Парламент Ирана экстренно собрался на фоне протестов"
Photo: Asian Times