History Suggests Economic Protests Must Turn Political—Iran’s Latest Unrest Is Trying to Do Exactly That
History suggests that economic protests alone rarely succeed unless they evolve into broader political movements. Iran’s own past supports this pattern. That long-running lesson is being tested again as demonstrations that began with market closures and currency panic in late December 2025 have widened into a sharper challenge to the Islamic Republic—one that increasingly sounds less like a plea for reform and more like a demand for regime change.
In a recent Foreign Policy analysis, Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky describe the current unrest as distinct from earlier economic flare-ups because the “center of gravity” is shifting: anger over livelihoods is merging with open political defiance, pushing slogans and expectations beyond policy fixes and toward the question of who governs Iran.
The spark this time was unmistakably economic. As the rial plunged to roughly 1.4 million per U.S. dollar, inflation climbed above 52 percent, and the cost of basic goods surged, merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and major commercial districts reportedly shuttered shops and poured into the streets. From there, protests spread quickly to universities and other urban centers, producing the most significant wave of unrest since the 2022 uprising that followed the death of Mahsa Amini.
That comparison matters. The 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement was driven by a social and moral rupture—rage at repression, compulsory veiling, and the state’s control over private life. Women and young people led a generational revolt that challenged the regime’s legitimacy through everyday acts of resistance. The new protests began with economic shock, drawing in traders, shopkeepers, students, and parts of the urban middle class—but they are now touching many of the same deeper grievances: corruption, misrule, and a widening gulf between state and society.
Tactically, the pattern is familiar. Social media has again helped demonstrations travel fast, with videos of strikes, rallies, and campus gatherings circulating widely. The state response has also followed a well-worn script: intimidation, mass detentions, and violent crackdowns intended to stop momentum before different groups—students, workers, women, and minorities—can fully synchronize.
What appears new is how broad the coalition could become, and how quickly. Reports suggest a wider geographic spread earlier in the cycle than in 2022, with unrest reaching beyond major hubs into smaller cities and economically strained areas. That breadth raises the stakes for authorities because Iran’s history shows the merchant class can become pivotal when it aligns with other social forces—most famously in the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and the 1979 upheaval.
The international backdrop has also shifted. With Donald Trump back in the White House and “maximum pressure” revived, Iran’s economic isolation has deepened, amplifying the domestic crisis. Meanwhile, Tehran’s regional position looks less secure than it did a few years ago, with allied networks weakened and Iran’s nuclear program reportedly damaged by Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025—factors that may affect elite cohesion and public expectations alike.
Inside Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has paired limited acknowledgement of hardship with accusations of foreign plots, a rhetorical blend seen during prior protest waves. But the street language is changing. Alongside the enduring symbolism of “Woman, Life, Freedom,” new chants with monarchist overtones—including calls invoking the Pahlavi era—signal that some protesters are searching for alternative visions of order and leadership, not merely relief from inflation.
Whether this wave endures will hinge on the classic variables: cross-class unity, disciplined political demands that outlast economic shock, and—most crucially—cracks inside the security apparatus and governing elite. For now, Iran’s protest movement is again pressing past the price of bread toward the price of power.
Photo: The source