The Times reported that the plan would be triggered if Khamenei concluded that key units — from the army to internal security forces — were deserting, refusing orders, or defecting amid mounting street pressure. The same account said the supreme leader, 86, would depart Tehran with a tight circle of aides and relatives, potentially numbering up to 20, including his son Mojtaba, often described by insiders as a leading contender in succession calculations.
People briefed on the report said Moscow is viewed as the preferred destination, framed as a refuge with political protection and a longstanding relationship with Tehran. The alleged exit strategy was compared to the flight of Syria’s former leader Bashar al‑Assad, who, according to the account, departed Damascus for Russia as opposition forces closed in on the capital in late 2024.
The intelligence summary also suggested that logistical preparations have been underway for some time, including the alleged consolidation of funds, overseas property arrangements, and access to liquid cash to facilitate rapid travel. The report noted Khamenei’s ties to a vast network of assets often associated with Setad, a powerful conglomerate linked to semi‑state foundations. A previous estimate widely cited in international reporting has placed the value of holdings connected to Setad at tens of billions of dollars.
The claims come as protests, sparked by economic hardship and deteriorating living standards, have flared in multiple cities over the past week, including Qom, a major religious center. Protesters have accused riot-control units — including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia, police, and elements of the army — of using heavy tactics such as live fire, tear gas, and water cannons. Iran’s leadership structure places those forces under the ultimate authority of the supreme leader, who wields decisive influence over the military, judiciary, state media, and key appointments.
A psychological profile referenced in the reporting argued that mass desertion is difficult to carry out in Iran’s tightly controlled system, where loyalty is rewarded and dissent is harshly punished. Yet the same assessment portrayed Khamenei as increasingly preoccupied with personal survival and regime continuity — a mindset it said intensified after last year’s short, intense war with Israel. The profile claimed he has appeared less frequently in public since that conflict and was notably absent during several recent days of protest activity.
Khamenei’s trajectory to the pinnacle of Iran’s political system is rooted in a life shaped by revolutionary struggle and personal trauma. Born in Mashhad in 1939, he became active against the shah, was arrested and mistreated by the security apparatus, and survived a 1981 assassination attempt that left him with lasting physical impairment. Supporters view his endurance as proof of providence; critics say it hardened an uncompromising worldview.
That worldview has underpinned decades of investment in Iran’s “axis of resistance” — allied groups across Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen — a strategy defended by officials as deterrence but increasingly questioned by citizens facing inflation and shrinking purchasing power. One chant reported from the streets captured that shift in focus: calls to prioritize Iran’s domestic needs over costly regional commitments. For now, officials insist the state remains in control, but the report suggests the leadership is quietly preparing for the possibility it might not be.
Photo: The Times