By The Editorial Board of Manila Times
A wave of protests has swept across Iran, as simmering public anger over the spiraling cost of living and inflation boiled over.
The protesters are demanding an end to the clerical system of government that has ruled Iran since 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini wrested power and transformed the country into an Islamic state.
There have even been calls for the return of the monarchy that Khomeini had overthrown.
Authorities in Tehran have moved quickly to suppress the dissent, carrying out mass arrests and shutting down the internet.
Information about real-time developments in Iran is coming out in trickles and is difficult to verify. Human rights organizations, however, are reporting widespread protest-related casualties. One group, Iran Human Rights, claimed that at least 51 rallyists have been killed, and hundreds more injured.
The Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that at least 200 leaders of the “violent riots” have been arrested.
The spokesman for Iran’s constitutional council blamed outside forces of fueling the dissent. “Foreign interference transformed peaceful protests of people directed at livelihood demands into riots and unrest,” the spokesman said.
The Iranian army accused Israel and “hostile terrorist groups” of trying to “undermine the country’s public security.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, blamed United States President Donald Trump for inciting the protesters to rise up against the government.
Khamenei said Trump has the “blood of more than 1,000 Iranians on his hands” for ordering the missile attacks on Iran in June last year.
In response, Trump warned that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”
“We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” he added.
If the situation in Iran escalates, it could touch off another conflict that could have a seismic impact on the Middle East’s political landscape.
Iran has long touted itself as the dominant player in the region, drawing power from its vast oil reserves and nuclear capacity. Tehran has projected its influence by training, financing and arming Islamic militias like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis — the so-called “Axis of Resistance” — in fighting a proxy war against Israel and its main ally, the US.
Successful Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah and Hamas leaders have drastically weakened their organizations. With the Axis of Resistance effectively neutralized, Iran’s proxy network has lost its key components.
The fall of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad also deprived Iran of a major ally in its protracted war against Israel.
US bombing raids on Iran’s main nuclear facilities highlighted the ineptness of the country’s defense capacity.
But it’s not only Iran’s political stature that has taken a hit. Its economy has also hit the skids.
The annual inflation rate is at a staggering 42 percent. Food costs 70 percent more, and the price of some basic goods is reportedly up by more than 110 percent.
“Iran’s government is widely seen as being at its weakest point in decades, facing simultaneous pressure from domestic unrest and a diametrically altered regional environment,” a writer for BBC News Persian observed recently.
The current crisis is believed to have started when the Iranian rial plunged to a record 1.4 million to the US dollar. Shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar complained that the rial’s steep dive stifled their business, and demanded that the government stabilize the currency market.
To dramatize their demand, the merchants closed their shops and took to the streets. Students joined them, the protest quickly spread to other cities, and eventually to all of the country’s 31 provinces.
By then, the issue had transformed from economic to political. The call was now for a regime change, with many protesters convinced that the government had become too repressive in trying to prop up the archaic clerical system.
The government said it “recognizes the protests” and would “listen with patience, even if it is confronted with harsh voices.”
The assurance faded after reports began to emerge about police using tear gas to break up demonstrations.
The next few days will determine whether the situation in Iran will grow into a crisis that could light the fuse of the powder keg that is the Middle East.
* This analysis was first published on 12 January 2026 in Manila Times. The opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily align with TLF’s official editorial line.
Photo: The Conversation