Second round of indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations concludes in Muscat amid cautious optimism, but deep disagreements and the shadow of American warships loom large
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday described indirect talks with the United States in Oman as a "good start," even as Washington kept up intense military and diplomatic pressure, warning American citizens to leave Iran immediately and reminding Tehran that President Donald Trump commands "the most powerful military in the history of the world."
The second round of Omani-mediated negotiations in Muscat ended "for now," according to Iranian state media, with Araghchi telling reporters that points of view had been exchanged "in a very good atmosphere."
"Our concerns were conveyed, as well as our interests and the rights that the Iranian people have," Araghchi said. "The views of the other side were also heard."
The cautiously positive tone stood in stark contrast to the military posturing playing out simultaneously in the waters off Iran's coast, where US warships and aircraft have amassed in what Trump has called an "armada." The president warned earlier that "bad things" would probably happen if a deal could not be reached.
Talks Format Fuels Guarded Hope
The negotiations are not direct face-to-face meetings. Instead, Oman's foreign minister has served as an intermediary, shuttling messages between the American and Iranian delegations. The length of Friday's session — the second meeting following initial exchanges — was interpreted by many inside Iran as a positive signal.
"The fact that it lasted so long is a positive sign because they believe that if there was a deadlock, perhaps they wouldn't have a second meeting," said Resul Serdar Atas, reporting from Tehran.
Yet fundamental disagreements remain. Iran insists the talks should be limited strictly to the nuclear programme, maintaining its right to enrich uranium on its own soil while offering not to exceed 400 kilograms of enriched material. The United States, by contrast, is pushing for a far broader package encompassing Iran's ballistic missile programme, its energy exports to China, and its relationships with regional allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — all issues Tehran considers firmly off the table.
Painful Concessions Possible — Up to a Point
Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said the Iranian regime may be prepared to make significant compromises on its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of crippling sanctions — but only if Washington does not push beyond Tehran's red lines.
"The Iranian leadership is willing to offer painful concessions. Iran seems to be willing to either shut down its nuclear programme or suspend it for a long time," Gerges said. Reports suggest Tehran could agree to lower its uranium enrichment levels for an agreed period in return for access to billions of dollars in frozen financial assets held in the US.
The sanctions, reimposed in 2018 when Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord, have devastated Iran's economy and contributed to waves of large-scale protests that threaten the regime's survival.
"The American and global sanctions have broken the backbone of the Iranian economy. They have pauperised the Iranian people, and have led to very serious large-scale protests that threaten the very viability and survival of the regime," Gerges said.
However, Iran's ballistic missile arsenal remains a hard red line. "Iran's ballistic missiles are its only deterrence at the moment," Gerges said. "Doing so will mean not only the surrender of Iran but it will become naked in the face of any future Israeli attacks."
He warned that if Washington insists on folding missiles and regional behaviour into the negotiations, "the talks will ultimately fail and I think we will see military escalation in the next few days and weeks."
'Leave Iran Now'
The precariousness of the moment was underscored by a fresh security alert issued by the US Virtual Embassy in Iran prior to Friday's talks, bluntly advising American citizens to "leave Iran now." With airlines continuing to cancel flights to and from the country, the alert recommended departing overland through Armenia or Turkey.
Iran has been under a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory — the State Department's highest warning — since early December, citing risks of terrorism, unrest, kidnapping, arbitrary arrest of US citizens, and wrongful detention. A similar alert was issued in January when Trump made provocative comments about supporting Iranian protesters, saying the US was "locked and loaded."
Military Shadow
The diplomatic track is unfolding against a backdrop that many analysts find deeply unsettling. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt issued a barely veiled threat on Thursday, telling reporters: "While these negotiations are taking place, I would remind the Iranian regime that the president has many options at his disposal, aside from diplomacy, as the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military in the history of the world."
Gerges warned that historical precedent suggests the massive US naval deployment could portend conflict rather than compromise. "Historically speaking, such a mobilisation of a large military force means the likelihood of a military confrontation is much higher than a diplomatic breakthrough," he said.
He added that a calculated strike could serve Trump's domestic political interests. "Trump faces some major problems at home, and I think a calculated military confrontation against Iran could divert attention from his domestic challenges."
Should it come to that, Gerges said, Iran would not back down. "I have no doubt in my mind that the Iranian leadership means what it says — any attack on Iran could be seen as an attack on the survival of the regime."
For now, the door to diplomacy remains open. But with an American armada in the Arabian Gulf and deep divisions over the scope of any deal, the window may not stay open for long.