Levian describes the atmosphere in Israel as one of tense anticipation, comparing the national mood to “a woman in her ninth month of pregnancy,” waiting nightly for an event that never quite arrives. The influx of American munitions into the region and the memory of Operation Rising Lion, during which Israeli aircraft reportedly operated freely over Iran, have fueled expectations that a decisive blow against what she calls the “Shiite axis of evil” may be imminent.
Yet Levian cautions that even a successful military operation would not guarantee a stable or democratic Iran the day after. Drawing on historical precedents, she argues that no oppressive regime in modern history has been replaced overnight by a benevolent one. The French Revolution’s descent into the Reign of Terror, Libya’s fragmentation after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Cambodia’s long struggle after the Khmer Rouge, and Syria’s devastating civil war all serve as reminders that revolutions often give way to chaos, revenge, and power struggles.
According to Levian, Iran’s internal dynamics make the post‑regime landscape particularly fraught. Although the country is more ethnically and culturally cohesive than Iraq or Syria, it remains deeply dependent on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose members control not only the security apparatus but also vast economic resources and institutional knowledge. Removing these actors entirely, she argues, would create a dangerous vacuum. She cites the example of Iraq, where the exclusion of Baath Party members after Saddam Hussein’s fall pushed many into the ranks of the Islamic State, fueling years of insurgency.
Levian warns that any new leadership in Iran would face a “volcano” of competing interests: factions seeking revenge, opportunistic militias vying for power, and foreign actors eager to shape the country’s future. Even a well‑intentioned transitional government would require significant time to restore order, rebuild institutions, and integrate former regime loyalists into a new political framework.
Despite the risks, Levian acknowledges that many in the international community view the dismantling of Iran’s current regime and its regional network of proxies as a strategic necessity. However, she stresses that military planners must devote equal attention to the aftermath. Without a realistic and humane plan for governance, she argues, the Iranian people could face a future marked not by liberation but by prolonged bloodshed and instability.
As regional tensions continue to escalate, Levian’s analysis in Israel Hayom underscores a central dilemma: while a strike on Iran may be militarily feasible, the true challenge lies in shaping what comes next.