In the aftermath of a devastating US-Israeli military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials on Saturday, Iran has lashed out with missile and drone attacks not only against Israel but across the Persian Gulf — striking Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. The decision to target the very nations that had repeatedly rejected involvement in the conflict and championed diplomacy with Tehran is being condemned by experts as a catastrophic strategic blunder, one that is rapidly eroding Iran's regional credibility, dismantling years of painstaking rapprochement, and pushing formerly neutral Gulf states closer to the US-Israeli orbit, according to an extensive analysis published by the Atlantic Council.
None of the Gulf states had launched attacks against Iran from their territory. Several had served as mediators. Yet Iran's retaliatory strikes — which hit not only military installations but airports, hotels, free trade zones, and residential areas — turned would-be bystanders into victims and potential adversaries, fundamentally redrawing the region's diplomatic and security landscape even as the broader war with the United States and Israel continues to rage.
Iran Widens the Conflict — and Alienates Its Neighbors
The Gulf states had made their position unambiguous in the lead-up to the conflict: they would not allow their territory, airspace, or military bases to be used for operations against Tehran. They chose restraint and diplomacy over escalation. It made no difference.
"Iran has made a serious strategic miscalculation by widening its confrontation to include the GCC states, despite their clear and consistent rejection of war," wrote Khalid Al-Jaber, executive director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, in the Atlantic Council analysis. The targeted nations "became part of a widening cycle of retaliation that they actively sought to avoid."
The Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and caused particular damage in the UAE. According to the Atlantic Council, hotels, airports, and the Jebel Ali free zone in Dubai suffered attacks or damage from intercepted strikes. At least one person was killed in Abu Dhabi from falling missile debris, and several others were injured in locations including Dubai's Palm Jumeirah.
The UAE — which had invested heavily in rebuilding diplomatic and trade relations with Tehran — found itself pushed firmly toward the US-Israeli camp. Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow Eric Alter reported from Abu Dhabi that the confrontation "is forcing the UAE much closer to the US and Israeli position than it wants to be." UAE officials asserted the country's "full right to respond," while diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash called Iran's approach "irrational" and said Tehran was isolating itself by ignoring Gulf Cooperation Council diplomacy.
"If Tehran believes such actions create leverage, that assessment is flawed," Al-Jaber wrote for the Atlantic Council. "Instead of acquiring more influence, Iran risks deeper isolation and stronger regional alignment against it."
For Qatar, which had long served as a key mediator between Iran and the West, there was no indication of direct involvement in offensive operations against Tehran. But by stating that it has the "right to respond," Doha left its options open — a stark departure from its traditional posture of neutrality, the Atlantic Council noted.
The Death of Gulf Diplomacy
Perhaps the most consequential casualty of Iran's decision to widen the war is the collapse of the Gulf-Iran rapprochement that had been carefully constructed over recent years. Writing from Riyadh for the Atlantic Council, Aziz Alghashian of the Gulf International Forum declared that "the region has entered a post-rapprochement era and is heading toward calculated militarization."
The Arab Gulf states had pursued normalization with Tehran as a strategic imperative, recognizing that their ambitious economic diversification plans — designed to attract tourism and investment — could not succeed in a turbulent region. "Given US reluctance to provide security guarantees for Arab Gulf states, Gulf-Iran rapprochement was necessary," Alghashian wrote, according to the Atlantic Council. That approach, he said, "is now upended."
What compounds the dilemma is that both Iran and the Gulf mediators now view mediation itself as a source of insecurity. Alghashian pointed to Israeli strikes on Doha in September 2025, strikes on Oman on Sunday, and Iran being attacked twice while negotiations were underway. "Mediation — particularly involving Iran and Israel — has become unappealing," he concluded in the Atlantic Council analysis.
Going forward, Gulf states are expected to shift decisively toward "building their deterrence via capabilities rather than alliances" — a significant departure from their previous diplomatic posture, the Atlantic Council reported. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke following the events, expressing solidarity and warning against further escalation, but the trajectory toward militarization appears set.
The Strike That Started It All
The joint US-Israeli operation, dubbed "Operation Roaring Lion" by Israel, was the product of meticulous advance planning that exploited what experts describe as a fatal miscalculation by Tehran's leadership. According to the Atlantic Council, Iranian negotiators had approached talks with US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as a familiar, drawn-out diplomatic dance — a strategy "ill-suited to US President Donald Trump," who had grown frustrated that Iran "hadn't capitulated" despite what the administration considered genuine offers.
Time ran out after the administration determined its proposals were "met with games, tricks, and stall tactics," the Atlantic Council reported. The same overconfidence led Iranian decision-makers to position their most senior echelon with "apparent complacency," effectively exposing them to an attack that Israeli media reported killed "30 high-level officials in 30 seconds."
Writing from Jerusalem, Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow Shalom Lipner noted that the Jewish festival of Purim — commemorating the deliverance of the Jewish people from annihilation in ancient Persia — is "figuring prominently in Israeli renditions" of the operation, with both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF Chief of Staff invoking it as a backdrop to the campaign.
"From Israel's perspective, the stars have never been better aligned for impactful change in Iran," Lipner wrote for the Atlantic Council. Yet he cautioned that the process of transition could "prove tortuous as the regime struggles to retain control" and uncertainty prevails over whether viable non-IRGC candidates exist to seize power. President Trump urged Iranians on Saturday to "take over your government. It will be yours to take."
Despite casualties Iran is inflicting on Israel's home front, Lipner noted that "Israelis are hopeful, tentatively, that the demise of a belligerent Shia axis — and the ascent of a peaceful, collaborative Middle East — might be within reach."
Iraq Sees an Opening — but Faces Risks
In Iraq, the weakening of Iran presents what the Atlantic Council described as "a dramatic opportunity to alter the course of Iraq," potentially reducing Tehran's deep influence over Iraqi politics, militias, and the economy.
Victoria J. Taylor, director of the Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative and a former US deputy assistant secretary of state, noted that some prominent Iraqi militias, such as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, have already announced their readiness to disarm — "demonstrating the extent to which certain militias have become focused on their interests in Iraq rather than acting as a tool of Iran."
However, the short-term picture remains volatile. Hardline militia groups including Kataib Hezbollah have issued threats, and a Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada-affiliated militia attacked the US base in Erbil. The Atlantic Council warned that a cycle of retaliation could draw Iraq deeper into the conflict, particularly following several US strikes in Iraq that killed militia members.
Meanwhile, the political gridlock over Iraq's next prime minister — frozen after Trump's sharp public message opposing former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's third term — could shift. The deaths of senior Iranian leaders "might break the gridlock," according to the Atlantic Council, though Maliki remains "a formidable force" within Iraqi politics regardless of Iranian backing.
Hezbollah Faces an Existential Dilemma
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is confronting what the Atlantic Council called "the biggest dilemma of its forty-five-year existence." The killing of Khamenei — the group's spiritual patron — shattered what had been a "red line," yet Hezbollah notably refrained from any immediate military retaliation.
Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow Nicholas Blanford reported from Beirut that Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem's public statements mourning Khamenei "contained no threats of revenge." The calculus is stark: attacking Israel would invite overwhelming retaliation that could destroy Lebanese infrastructure and the organization itself, while ignoring a potential Iranian order to fight would risk rupturing Hezbollah's foundational bond with Tehran.
Blanford noted that Qassem "appears to be a pragmatist" who has been restructuring Hezbollah with an eye on domestic survival — centralizing control, tightening security, reducing the size of its military wing, and promoting figures with political rather than military backgrounds. Still, the Atlantic Council cautioned that dissatisfied military commanders within Hezbollah could act independently, and that Iran might attempt to assert "more direct operational control" by deploying the IRGC-Quds Force to bypass the party's leadership entirely.
Turkey Braces for Fallout
Turkey, which shares a 330-mile border with Iran, faces cascading challenges on multiple fronts, according to the Atlantic Council. Defne Arslan, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Turkey Program, outlined three critical areas of concern.
On security, Ankara fears a mass refugee influx on top of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees already in the country. Turkish officials also worry that a power vacuum in Iran could embolden Kurdish separatist groups — specifically PJAK, the Iranian wing of the PKK — potentially creating a new security vacuum along the eastern border. Turkey's presidential office announced that NATO bases on its territory, including the Küreçik radar station and İncirlik Air Base, would not be used for offensive strikes.
On the economic front, Iran supplies approximately 15 percent of Turkey's natural gas, and any disruption to the Tabriz-Ankara pipeline would cause immediate energy shortages. Turkey's already elevated inflation — roughly 31 percent — could worsen as global oil prices spike, the Atlantic Council noted.
On diplomacy, Ankara declared it is "not taking sides," with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reportedly leading a push for a cease-fire. President Erdoğan spoke with Trump on Saturday, though experts said meaningful mediation is "nearly impossible in the short term," according to the Atlantic Council.
Palestinians: Forgotten Again
For Palestinians, the war represents yet another devastating blow, according to the Atlantic Council. Israel closed all crossings into Gaza shortly after the strikes on Iran began. While Israel claims Gaza has provisions for an "extended period," the United Nations and Human Rights Watch had already flagged severe shortages of aid, medicine, and reconstruction materials in mid-February.
"This current war represents further loss for Palestinians," wrote Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US ambassador. "They lose momentum for rebuilding their lives. They lose the world's attention to their plight."
She noted that from the perspective of Gazans, Iran and its proxies had been among the few actors to mount any armed response on their behalf — a source of support that may now vanish entirely. With over seventy thousand Palestinians killed and Gaza's infrastructure totally destroyed during more than two years of war following Hamas's October 7, 2023 assault, and with the world's focus now squarely on the Iran conflict, improvements on humanitarian conditions are unlikely, the Atlantic Council concluded.
"If they didn't have bad luck, they wouldn't have any at all," Abercrombie-Winstanley wrote, invoking an old blues saying.
What Comes Next
As the conflict enters its third day, the overarching question remains whether the Iranian regime can survive the onslaught — and what emerges in its aftermath. But across the region, one consequence is already undeniable: Iran's decision to widen the war by striking its Gulf neighbors has accelerated a realignment that may prove irreversible. Nations that had staked their futures on diplomacy and rapprochement with Tehran are now recalculating their security postures, investing in deterrence, and drifting closer to the very coalition Iran sought to resist.
"Trust, once damaged, is difficult to restore," Al-Jaber wrote for the Atlantic Council. For Iran — whether under its current leadership or whatever follows — that may be the conflict's most enduring legacy.