Analysts warn of a contested interim period, with power shifting further into the two hands of Iran’s military establishment: the ideologically hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular Artesh armed forces
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the latest round of joint US-Israeli strikes has triggered the most significant leadership vacuum in the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the assassination represents not merely the loss of a single leader, but a high-stakes test of whether the entire system built around the concept of velayat-e faqih – the guardianship of the Islamic jurist – can survive without the man who dominated it for nearly four decades.
Iranian state television confirmed Khamenei’s death on Sunday, one day after US President Donald Trump declared the 86-year-old supreme leader dead. The joint US-Israeli military operation, dubbed “Epic Fury” by the Pentagon and “Roaring Lion” by Israel, struck Khamenei’s compound among its first targets. Israeli officials said the opening strikes decimated Iran’s top security tier, killing several senior defence and intelligence officials alongside the supreme leader.
Hardening Continuity, Not Collapse – For Now
The SCMP reports that analysts see the immediate signs pointing less towards regime collapse than towards a hardening of continuity, as security institutions close ranks and signs of internal rupture remain absent. Within hours of Khamenei’s killing, Iran’s security apparatus signalled that military operations would continue. Paramilitary units were deployed across the country to deter unrest, as Tehran sought to project control at home while escalating its response abroad.
However, the SCMP warns that the greater danger may lie in what follows: not an orderly transition, but a contested interim period in which power shifts further towards the military establishment. This points to the dual pillars of Iran’s armed apparatus – the ideologically hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), constitutionally tasked with protecting the Islamic system, and the regular Artesh armed forces – emerging as the dominant power brokers in the post-Khamenei era.
Succession Crisis and Constitutional Uncertainty
Under Iran’s constitution, the Assembly of Experts – an 88-member clerical body – is responsible for selecting a new supreme leader. An interim council is expected to assume power during the transition. Reports indicate that Khamenei had put in place detailed succession plans, elevating longtime loyalist Ali Larijani to manage the crisis. Larijani, the most senior civilian official still standing, vowed on social media that Iran would deliver Israel and the United States an “unforgettable lesson.”
Among potential successors, Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, maintains deep ties with the IRGC and the Basij militia. His possible elevation would raise uncomfortable questions about dynastic succession in a republic founded on anti-monarchical revolution. Other names being discussed include senior clerics and figures close to the security establishment.
Retaliation and Regional Escalation
As the SCMP notes, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-linked targets in the region, though it struggled to penetrate Israel’s air defences or inflict significant losses on American forces. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that seeking revenge for the killing is Iran’s “duty and legitimate right,” describing the assassination as a “declaration of open war on Muslims, especially Shiites, in all corners of the world.”
The strikes have drawn sharp international reaction. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the US-Israeli operation as “unacceptable” and criticised what he called the “blatant killing of a sovereign leader and the incitement of regime change.” Meanwhile, Trump celebrated Khamenei’s death and urged Iranian security forces to surrender, calling for the Iranian people to “take over your government” once the bombing campaign concludes.
The Road Ahead: Military Dominance or Fracture?
The central question now confronting Tehran, according to the SCMP analysis, is whether the Islamic Republic in its present form can withstand the shock. Analysts broadly identify three possible trajectories: regime continuity under a new supreme leader, a firmer military takeover led by the IRGC, or a gradual regime collapse. None of these scenarios, experts caution, point to meaningful political or economic liberalisation in the near term.
What is clear is that the era of Khamenei’s doctrine of “strategic patience” – absorbing blows to avoid all-out war – appears to have died with him. The new calculus in Tehran may be shaped less by clerical deliberation than by the calculations of men in uniform. Whether this means a more aggressive external posture, a tightened internal grip, or the seeds of eventual fragmentation remains the defining question of the post-Khamenei Islamic Republic.
Graphic: SCMP