The US-Israeli war on Iran entered its fourth week on Saturday with a cascade of significant escalations: Iran fired ballistic missiles at the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility was struck for a second time, drone attacks set fires near American facilities in Baghdad, and Israeli forces continued their assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, conflicting signals from Washington and Tel Aviv deepened uncertainty over the conflict's trajectory.
Diego Garcia Strike — and a Dangerous Revelation
Iran launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, the remote British overseas territory housing a strategic US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean. Neither missile struck the base, according to sources cited by the BBC and the Wall Street Journal, but the episode has unsettled Western defence planners for a fundamental reason: Diego Garcia lies approximately 4,000 kilometres from Iran — double the 2,000-kilometre ceiling previously attributed to the Iranian missile programme under the late supreme leader's orders. Analysts at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies noted that missiles of such range, fired in the opposite direction, could theoretically reach London, altering the strategic calculus not only for Washington but for a hitherto cautious European Union.
The UK Ministry of Defence neither confirmed nor denied the launches, stating only that Iran's attacks across the region constitute "a threat to British interests and British allies." The MoD confirmed that RAF jets and other UK assets are engaged in defensive operations. The UK had previously authorised American use of Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire for defensive missions, and expanded that authorisation on Friday to include strikes on Iranian sites targeting the Strait of Hormuz.
Natanz Hit Again
Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation confirmed that the Shahid Ahmadi Roshan enrichment facility at Natanz — 220 kilometres southeast of Tehran — was struck early on Saturday morning in what it described as "criminal attacks" by the US and Israel. The organisation said technical assessments found no radioactive leakage and no danger to surrounding populations. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had informed it of the attack and that no off-site radiation increase had been detected. Israeli media, citing US sources, reported that bunker-buster bombs were used against the site for the first time in this phase of the conflict. Natanz was previously struck during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025 and again in the opening week of the current campaign.
Baghdad Under Attack
Drone strikes in Baghdad added a new front to Saturday's violence. A massive fire erupted near Victory Base, a US military complex that has been targeted repeatedly since the war began. Separately, the headquarters of Iraq's National Intelligence Service in the Mansour district was struck by a drone, killing one officer. Iraqi security officials attributed the attack to "outlaw groups."
Lebanon and the Hezbollah Front
Israeli forces carried out a series of strikes against Hezbollah in Beirut's southern suburbs and in southern Lebanon overnight, following renewed evacuation warnings for seven neighbourhoods in the Dahieh district. Lebanese media reported at least two air raids on the capital. At least four Hezbollah operatives were killed in clashes. The Lebanese government says more than 1,000 people have been killed and over one million displaced across Lebanon since the war began. Hezbollah, in turn, claimed rocket fire against Israel's Filon military base near Rosh Pinna in northern Israel.
Gulf States Under Pressure
The UAE said its air defences intercepted three ballistic missiles and eight drones launched from Iran on Saturday alone, bringing total intercepts since the war began to 341 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and over 1,700 drones. Bahrain announced it had intercepted 143 missiles and 242 drones over the same period. Jordan confirmed it had successfully repelled dozens of missiles and drones targeting its territory since the war's outset.
Divergent Signals on the War's Direction
President Trump said the US was considering "winding down" its military campaign, claiming Iran's capabilities had been severely degraded, while adding he had not wanted a ceasefire. He again demanded that NATO allies — whom he called "cowards" — and Asian partners take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global energy flows. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was open to dialogue but that the US did not appear ready to halt its aggression; Iran is seeking not a ceasefire but a "complete, comprehensive, and lasting end to the war."
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz struck a starkly different tone, saying US-Israeli strikes would "significantly escalate" during the coming week and that operations would not stop until all war objectives were achieved.
Brent crude oil stood at around $106 per barrel on Saturday, up from approximately $70 before hostilities began.