Iraq’s government is struggling to maintain its declared neutrality as the country becomes a key battleground in the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Despite official statements of non-involvement, Iraq finds itself caught in the crossfire, with Iranian-backed militias launching attacks from its territory and U.S.-led forces retaliating with airstrikes on militia bases.
The central government, currently operating in a weakened interim capacity with a third of cabinet posts vacant, has issued directives to prevent Iraqi Kurdistan from allowing Iranian-Kurdish militants to use the region as a launchpad into Iran. However, its authority is increasingly challenged by powerful armed factions. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), many of which are aligned with Iran, continue to operate with significant autonomy, launching drone and missile strikes against U.S. installations in Erbil and Baghdad.
In a bid to assert control, Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani has ordered security forces to prevent any actions that could drag Iraq into the war, notably blocking pro-Iranian protesters from storming the U.S. embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone. Yet, the government’s reluctance to explicitly name and confront the militias has drawn criticism, with analysts warning that its inaction enables Tehran’s proxies to foster chaos.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, himself a Kurd, has emphasized that while Iraq is “not a party to the war,” its geographic location makes it directly vulnerable. The situation is further complicated by U.S. and Israeli efforts to mobilize Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq, a move that risks triggering deeper Iranian retaliation and fracturing the already delicate internal balance.
With Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani calling for restraint and regional leaders like Masrour Barzani of Iraqi Kurdistan declaring neutrality, Iraq’s leadership is attempting a precarious balancing act. But as the regional war intensifies, the risk grows that Iraq’s fragile state may be unable to prevent a slide into full-scale civil conflict.