Israeli officials concede that toppling Tehran's rulers will require far more than weeks of airstrikes, as security forces maintain firm control and Iranian civilians remain too fearful to rise up.
Nearly two weeks into the war against Iran, Israeli officials now assess that the Islamic Republic's ruling regime is unlikely to fall in the near future, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. Despite sustained military strikes by Israel and the United States, Tehran's leadership remains functional, its security apparatus is intact on the streets, and conditions for a popular uprising have not materialized.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the uncertainty on Thursday. "I can't tell you with certainty that the Iranian people will bring down the regime," he said, adding, "If it doesn't fall, it will be much weaker." While Netanyahu continues to publicly encourage Iranians to prepare for the moment to take to the streets, the Israeli military has quietly shifted toward more limited objectives — namely, degrading Iran's military capability rather than banking on regime change.
"Our job as a military is when we see a threat to minimize it and push it away for as long as possible," Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani told reporters, signaling that broader political transformation lies beyond the military's mandate.
The Journal reported that the U.S. has similarly recalibrated its messaging. President Trump and Netanyahu initially called on Iranians to seize control of their country, but American officials have since narrowed their stated goals to destroying Iran's nuclear program, ballistic-missile arsenal, and military infrastructure. Both Washington and Jerusalem are expected to continue applying economic pressure and conducting covert operations even after hostilities cease.
Meanwhile, Iran's regime has proven more resilient than some had hoped. The country's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — who replaced his father, killed in the war's opening strikes — issued a statement vowing revenge and ordering forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Attacks on fuel tankers and cargo ships have effectively shut down the critical waterway, rattling the global economy. Gulf states including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have faced continued strikes, with Dubai residents reporting missile warnings and intercepts.
On the ground inside Iran, the regime's security forces maintain a firm grip. Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij, their plainclothes enforcers, are visibly patrolling Tehran and other cities. Residents told the *Journal* that security forces have issued shoot-to-kill orders against would-be protesters, evoking memories of a January crackdown in which thousands of demonstrators were killed. In Isfahan, despite intense Israeli airstrikes, Basij members have been seen riding motorcycles through the streets brandishing guns and regime flags.
Former senior Israeli defense official Amir Avivi, who is close to the government, said additional weeks of military pressure could lay groundwork for an uprising but cautioned that results are unpredictable. "We are not there yet," he said.
Others were more blunt. Assaf Orion, the former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military, told the Journal: "There is no recipe for this. It's not mechanical engineering. The war is planned to last weeks, and these processes can take years."
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar echoed this assessment in an interview with the Times of Israel, stating that military action alone cannot topple the regime. "Usually such things happen after the military campaign, less so when there's a war," he said.
The stakes of failure are significant. Analysts warn that if the regime survives, it could emerge hardened and emboldened. "If this doesn't succeed, you have to live with the results," Orion cautioned. For ordinary Iranians, the calculus is even starker — many opponents of the regime told the *Journal* that rising up without guaranteed foreign support would amount to suicide, with one resident calling the prospect "a bloodbath."