Tehran Adopts Strategy of Economic Pressure Even as Neighbors Avoid Direct Military Confrontation
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader has marked a significant shift in Tehran's approach to its escalating conflict with Israel and the United States, with the Islamic Republic now betting on a brutal economic war of attrition to destabilize the region, according to Haaretz Analysis.
Khamenei Jr., 56, who assumed power following his father's death, has quickly consolidated authority with the backing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While speculation initially focused on whether the new leader would pursue direct military escalation, the emerging strategy appears to prioritize economic pressure over widening the battlefield, Haaretz Analysis reports.
The approach centers on exploiting Iran's ability to disrupt global energy markets. Oil prices surged to $115 per barrel on Monday after Iraq announced a 60 percent production cut, followed by similar measures from Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. With storage facilities filling rapidly and maritime routes through the Persian Gulf increasingly precarious, the economic impact is already rippling across the globe, Haaretz Analysis notes.
Despite Iranian missile strikes on their territories, Arab states have notably refrained from joining the military conflict. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and other Gulf nations have limited their response to "defensive measures," even as they engage in intensive diplomatic efforts with the Trump administration to secure a ceasefire, Haaretz Analysis indicates.
The strategy appears calculated to exploit this reluctance. Tehran appears to be wagering that mounting economic hardship—rising prices, energy shortages, and deteriorating personal security—will eventually spark public anger in Arab states and poorer regional countries, undermining their political stability from within rather than through direct military confrontation, according to Haaretz Analysis.
Turkey and Azerbaijan present telling case studies. Both countries have absorbed Iranian attacks—missile strikes on Antep and drones targeting Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan enclave—yet both have carefully avoided being drawn into the conflict. Ankara has declined to invoke NATO's Article 4 or 5, maintaining what it describes as a "balanced" position despite being a treaty ally, Haaretz Analysis reports.
Turkey's hesitation reflects broader regional calculations. Ankara relies on Iran for approximately 16 percent of its natural gas imports and fears the potential fallout from regime collapse in Tehran, including the possibility of civil war spilling across borders. Azerbaijan shares similar concerns about its own Azeri minority and internal sectarian dynamics, Haaretz Analysis explains.
The economic warfare strategy also involves the potential activation of proxy forces. While Yemen's Houthis have not yet committed to joining the conflict, their ability to threaten Red Sea shipping and Saudi oil installations remains a significant lever. Whether Mojtaba Khamenei will order their full activation—or risk attacking Turkey directly—represents a critical decision point, Haaretz Analysis suggests.
For the new Supreme Leader, the central objective remains regime survival while potentially reviving the long-standing revolutionary vision of exporting Iran's Islamic Revolution through economic leverage rather than military force. With President Donald Trump having ruled out realistic diplomatic options, Tehran appears convinced that only sustained economic pressure might eventually alter Washington's position, Haaretz Analysis concludes.
As the war enters this new phase, the absence of visible turmoil in countries like the United Arab Emirates—which has warned merchants against price gouging while emphasizing its strategic reserves—does not indicate an absence of concern. Behind closed doors, Arab capitals are increasingly anxious that Iran's economic war of attrition may succeed where direct military confrontation has failed.
Photo: The source (and AP)