The killing of Ayatollah Khamenei threatens to unravel years of Russian investment and strategic partnership with Tehran. Yet as Iran's oil exports falter and global energy markets convulse, the Kremlin may find a fleeting — if bitter — silver lining in the chaos.
The massive US-Israeli air strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February have confronted Moscow with one of its most consequential geopolitical crises in years. Iran is one of Russia's strongest international allies, and the sudden decimation of its leadership raises urgent questions about billions of dollars in Russian investments, the future of critical infrastructure projects, and the Kremlin's already eroding influence across the Middle East.
Yet as The Moscow Times reported, citing analysts and Russian officials, the picture is not entirely bleak for Moscow. Amid the wreckage of a partnership years in the making, Russia may find narrow, short-term opportunities — particularly in the global energy markets where it has long sought dominance.
Putin Takes It Personally
President Vladimir Putin's response was swift and emotional — unusually so. As The Moscow Times noted, when other allied leaders have been ousted in recent years, Putin has typically refrained from immediate comment. But just one day after the strikes, Putin released a statement condemning Khamenei's death as "a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law."
"In our country, Ayatollah Khamenei will be remembered as an outstanding statesman who made a huge personal contribution to the development of friendly Russian-Iranian relations, raising them to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership," Putin said, according to The Moscow Times.
Russia's Foreign Ministry went further, issuing what the outlet described as a "blistering condemnation," accusing the US and Israel of violating international law and seeking to subjugate a state that refused to bend to their will.
The intensity of Russia's response stood in notable contrast to China's far more restrained reaction. Where Beijing carefully avoided the word "condemn," Moscow deployed it forcefully and without hesitation.
Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russian-Iranian relations cited by The Moscow Times, said there was no doubt that Putin took the situation personally, likening it to the killings of other Russian allies — Libya's Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and Iraq's Saddam Hussein in 2006.
"Everything that is happening in the Middle East is threatening Russian interests," Smagin told The Moscow Times. "It's the change of a norm, it's the change of a pattern — how world powers act towards authoritarian countries. And certainly it's not a good signal for Russia."
Billions on the Line
But beyond the personal affront, Moscow's bigger worry is its substantial investment portfolio in Iran, The Moscow Times reported.
The stakes are enormous. Russia has poured resources into the North-South corridor, a multibillion-dollar planned railway route connecting Russia and Iran through the South Caucasus. A separate US$25 billion deal to build four nuclear reactors in southern Iran represents another pillar of the relationship. And just last month, Iran's ambassador indicated that Russia was planning to expand its presence in the country's oil and gas industry, the outlet noted.
"Russia has invested a lot of effort and money in Iran," Smagin told The Moscow Times. "Certainly, if we imagine regime change or if we imagine instability in Iran, all these projects are under threat."
The risk extends beyond the immediate chaos of war. As The Moscow Times reported, the next government in Tehran — should the current regime fall — may not be friendly to Moscow. Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, wrote on social media that Russia's interests in Iran "could suffer, especially if whoever comes next seeks more pragmatic relations with the West."
"This has been Russia's longstanding fear," Notte said, as quoted by The Moscow Times.
Julian Waller, a George Washington University professor and Russia expert at the think tank CNA, had previously warned The Moscow Times that Moscow-sceptical factions in Tehran could gain influence if Russia is seen as standing by while the regime is toppled. "Russia failing to publicly back the regime might have significant consequences if the regime survives," Waller said — a dynamic that may partly explain the speed and forcefulness of Putin's condemnation.
The Oil Price Upside
Despite these considerable risks, The Moscow Times reported that the conflict could deliver certain short-term benefits to Russia — primarily through rising energy prices.
As damage was still being assessed across Iran on Saturday, ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz began reporting that Iranian authorities were instructing them to turn around, the outlet reported. Iran has not officially announced any action on the Strait, through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas export traffic passes, but any sustained disruption would send shockwaves through markets and drive up oil prices dramatically.
For Russia, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil export revenues, this is welcome news. Higher international oil prices directly bolster the Kremlin's fiscal position at a time when military spending on the war in Ukraine continues to strain government resources.
Moreover, Iran is one of the biggest suppliers of crude oil to China — a market where Russia has been aggressively expanding its presence. If Iranian exports are disrupted by conflict or further sanctions, Russia stands to capture a larger share of Chinese demand.
"Russia can even benefit short term," Smagin told The Moscow Times of the potential to capitalise on lagging Iranian oil exports. "And maybe even these benefits can be really significant."
On Sunday, members of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced a production quota increase to take effect in April, but analysts said the increase would not be sufficient to offset the expected price spike, The Moscow Times reported.
Ukraine War Effort Largely Unaffected
One area experts say is unlikely to be shaken is Russia's war effort in Ukraine. As The Moscow Times noted, Moscow has relocated the production of destructive, Iran-designed Shahed drones to domestic facilities in recent years, and the importance of arms imports has decreased as Russian manufacturing of ammunition and first-person view drones has ramped up.
This suggests that whatever befalls Iran's government, the immediate military implications for Russia's campaign in Ukraine are limited — a small consolation amid broader strategic losses.
A Pattern of Erosion
The broader picture for Russia, however, is one of accelerating decline in Middle Eastern influence. As Smagin told The Moscow Times, every recent development in the region has undermined Russian interests — from the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria in 2024 to faltering diplomatic mediation efforts, and now the potential collapse of its most important remaining partner in the region.
Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy analyst, chose not to assess the implications for Moscow directly but instead warned of broader consequences. "In any scenario, the region is entering a new phase of upheaval that will reverberate widely across neighbouring areas," Lukyanov wrote in the magazine *Russia in Global Affairs*, as cited by The Moscow Times. "And that bodes ill for everyone."
Condemnation Without Action
For all the fiery rhetoric, statements are likely to be the extent of Russia's short-term response, Smagin told The Moscow Times. Moscow is already stretched thin by the war in Ukraine and lacks the military capacity or strategic positioning to intervene in the Middle East on Iran's behalf.
This leaves Russia in an uncomfortable position: loudly condemning an attack it cannot reverse, watching billions in investments teeter on the brink, and hoping that rising oil prices provide enough of a financial cushion to offset the strategic damage.
The contrast with China's approach is instructive. Where Beijing has maintained careful ambiguity — preserving flexibility for whatever comes next — Moscow has committed itself rhetorically to the fallen regime, a choice that could complicate relations with any successor government in Tehran.
Whether the short-term oil windfall can compensate for the long-term erosion of Russian influence remains deeply uncertain. What is clear, as The Moscow Times reporting underscores, is that the strikes on Iran have dealt another blow to a Kremlin already struggling to maintain its position on the global stage.
Photo: Gemini