"If Conflict Erupts on a Larger Scale, It Is Unlikely to Remain Contained"
China has issued a stark warning that a broader military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran risks spiralling beyond control, as Beijing called for an immediate cessation of hostilities following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory on Saturday.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China is "highly concerned" about the military attacks, stressing that Iran's national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity must be respected. "China calls for an immediate halt to military operations, to avoid further escalation of tensions, to resume dialogue and negotiation, and to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East," the spokesperson said, according to the Global Times.
The warning comes as a prominent Chinese analyst on Middle Eastern affairs offered a blunt strategic assessment. "If conflict erupts on a larger scale, it is unlikely to remain contained — and its trajectory would be far more severe and unpredictable than many policymakers anticipate," wrote Tian Wenlin, professor of Middle East affairs at Renmin University of China, in a commentary published by China Daily.
A Dangerous Threshold
Tian described the joint US-Israeli strike as "a significant escalation, both militarily and strategically," noting that unlike previous shadow confrontations, the coordinated action signals a deeper level of alignment between Washington and Tel Aviv. For Israel, the strikes aim to achieve what he called a "broken window" effect — demonstrating that Iranian territory is penetrable, a move carrying both military and psychological weight. For the United States, the strikes mark a shift from indirect pressure to overt involvement, suggesting Washington has concluded that calibrated force may strengthen its bargaining position with Tehran.
The analyst cautioned, however, that direct US involvement dramatically narrows the space for controlled escalation. "Once the United States becomes directly involved in joint operations, the next phase of confrontation, if it unfolds, is unlikely to be a limited 'strike-and-withdraw' scenario," Tian wrote. "The danger lies not in symbolic blows, but in rapid and potentially uncontrollable escalation — possibly exceeding the scale of last June's exchange."
Should Iran retaliate, its first wave of response would almost certainly target Israeli territory, while simultaneously seeking to impose costs on US interests across the region — a dynamic that could rapidly draw in additional actors and expand well beyond the initial scope of the strikes. "The logic of deterrence can give way to the logic of survival," Tian warned.
Chinese Nationals in Iran Begin Evacuation Preparations
On the ground, the Chinese Embassy in Iran confirmed to the Global Times that it has so far received no reports of Chinese casualties. However, the Embassy issued a special security reminder on Saturday afternoon local time, urging Chinese nationals to strengthen precautions, avoid sensitive locations and crowded places, remain calm, and be prepared to take immediate emergency shelter.
The Global Times learned from Tan Kai, president of the Iran Federation of Chinese Organizations, that more than 200 Chinese nationals are currently living in Iran. Acting on Embassy instructions, the Federation is making preparations for an orderly withdrawal via land border crossings once conditions permit. Some Chinese nationals who are able to leave independently have already departed.
A Chinese student surnamed Gao in Tehran told the Global Times that those with experience from last June's evacuation have a degree of psychological preparedness. The most likely contingency plan, students said, would involve assembling at the Chinese Embassy or designated locations in central Tehran before travelling by embassy-arranged buses through the Tabriz area toward border crossings with Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Turkey.
A Chinese national surnamed Xiong, working in Tehran's photovoltaic sector, told the Global Times he witnessed an explosion on a hillside near his construction site. Having reached a hotel in the suburbs of Tehran by around 1 am Saturday with emergency supplies in hand, he is now waiting for colleagues before the group proceeds overland to Azerbaijan — a journey expected to take approximately half a day.
Iran's airspace has been closed following the strikes.