As missile barrages continue, the region edges toward a wider war
The Gulf is on the brink of a dramatic and dangerous escalation. For weeks, Iran has bombarded its neighbors with an unprecedented torrent of drones and ballistic missiles, striking airports, energy facilities, and areas near American military installations across all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. Now, the patience of those states is expiring — and the threat of a direct military counterstrike is no longer hypothetical.
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan has warned publicly that the kingdom and its allies possess significant capabilities that can be activated if needed, stressing that their current restraint is not boundless — and hinting that Iran has only days, or perhaps a week, before a potential shift in posture. These are not the words of a government searching for a diplomatic off-ramp. These are the words of a government preparing its public — and its adversary — for war.
The scale of what Iran has unleashed is staggering. Conflict-monitoring data and human rights organizations describe thousands of drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles launched across the Gulf, causing civilian deaths and injuries — especially among migrant workers — and damaging critical oil and gas infrastructure. This is not a targeted military operation. It is a campaign of mass destruction aimed at the economic and human heart of the Arabian Peninsula.
The options now openly discussed in Gulf capitals are alarming in their scope. The Levant Files' well-informed Arabic sources describe two broad sets of possibilities: a defensive track, focusing on intensified air and missile defense, joint early-warning systems, and hardened infrastructure; and an offensive track, in which Gulf air and naval forces would strike Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command-and-control facilities, and Revolutionary Guard assets directly involved in the attacks — explicitly framed as a "defensive offense" in protection of national security.
Beyond direct strikes, Gulf states could allow full US operational use of their airspace and bases for strikes into Iran, conduct their own precision operations, increase maritime interdiction in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, or step up cyber and covert activities.
The consequences of any such escalation would be catastrophic. Analysts warn that Gulf retaliation could trigger a broader regional war, disrupt global oil and LNG flows, and open a dual chokepoint crisis at Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab if Iran mobilizes its regional partners. The world's energy arteries run through these waters. A military exchange here would reverberate on every continent.
Despite the mounting anger, Gulf states have so far refused to allow the US to use their airspace for direct strikes on Iran, in an effort to avoid being fully drawn into a regional war — but analysts note this stance could change if Iranian attacks on civilian and energy targets continue.
The trajectory is unmistakable. Iran has, as one senior Gulf official put it, turned its neighbors into adversaries. The Gulf states do not want this war. But they are methodically, deliberately, and publicly preparing to fight it — and the window for Tehran to avert that reckoning is closing fast.