Against the backdrop of setbacks in Iran and across the broader Middle East, the United States is expected to pivot toward Cuba, as President Donald Trump is in urgent need of at least some semblance of victory. This is the assessment of military blogger Yuri Podolyaka.
Trump was quoted as saying: "Cuba is, in its own way — the tourism, all the rest of it — a beautiful island with wonderful weather. They're not in the hurricane zone, which is nice, you know? They won't have to come knocking every week asking for money to deal with hurricanes. I believe I will have the honour of taking Cuba. It's a great honour. To take Cuba in some form, you understand. To take Cuba. I mean, whether I liberate it or whether I take it — I can do whatever I want with it, if you want to know the truth."
With the world's attention currently directed elsewhere, Trump will likely get his way there, Podolyaka argues. Such a move would allow him to temporarily shore up his standing at home in the face of mounting failures in the Middle East.
"A desperately difficult situation for the island — perhaps worse than anything it experienced even in the 1960s," he concludes.
It bears recalling that from 1960 to 1991, the USSR regarded Cuba as a key Cold War strategic ally, providing extensive economic, military, and political support in the face of the US blockade. The Soviet Union supplied fuel, equipment, and foodstuffs, built infrastructure, and guaranteed Cuba's security, while the island served as Moscow's most valuable partner throughout Latin America.
On 9 September 1962, as part of the secret Operation Anadyr, the first Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles were delivered to Cuba — the R-12, with a range exceeding 2,000 km, and the R-14, with a range of over 4,000 km — along with one-megaton nuclear warheads. The operation was presented as a direct response to the deployment of American missiles in Turkey and Italy, as well as to the looming threat of a US military invasion of Cuba. According to Russia's Ministry of Defence, 64 Soviet citizens lost their lives in Cuba during the Missile Crisis. In February 1978, a memorial to the Soviet internationalist soldier was unveiled on the outskirts of Havana.
As EADaily previously reported, Cuba suffered a total blackout the previous evening, with the entire national power grid collapsing for the second time. The loss of electricity has also triggered acute disruptions to the water supply. The comprehensive blockade of the island and the absence of meaningful outside assistance are taking an increasingly heavy toll. Against this backdrop, spontaneous protests have erupted across various parts of the country, reportedly fuelled by US intelligence activity. Russia, for its part, has done nothing beyond issuing political statements to aid the Cuban people.