Washington and Tehran are heading back to the Pakistani capital for a new round of negotiations, as the ceasefire teeters on expiry and Iran keeps its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Sources close to The Levant Files warn that optimism in official circles far outpaces reality on the ground.
With the clock ticking on a fragile two-week ceasefire set to expire on April 22, the United States and Iran are heading back to Islamabad for a second round of high-stakes negotiations. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and senior adviser Jared Kushner would travel to the Pakistani capital — the same delegation that presided over last weekend's marathon but inconclusive talks at the Serena Hotel.
The announcement came wrapped in characteristic Trumpian bluster. In a post on Truth Social, the President issued what analysts described as a barely veiled war crime threat: "I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!" US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz sought to provide legal cover for the threat, arguing on NBC's Meet the Press that any infrastructure "co-mingled" with Iran's military constitutes a "legitimate target" under the laws of land warfare.
The first Islamabad round, on April 11–12, ended without agreement after 21 hours of talks spanning three rounds — one indirect and two direct. Iran's lead negotiator, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Saturday that while some progress had been made, key issues remained unresolved. He insisted that any deal proceed "step-by-step" with reciprocal actions, and that Washington must "earn the trust of the Iranian people." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, for his part, accused the US of "maximalism and shifting goalposts" when the two sides were, by his account, within reach of a memorandum of understanding.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most combustible flashpoint. Iran briefly declared the waterway open on Friday, only to reverse course within 24 hours, with its military announcing a return to "strict control" after Trump's naval blockade of Iranian ports. The UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded two vessels struck by IRGC gunboats on Saturday — including an Indian-flagged tanker fired upon without radio warning. New Delhi summoned Iran's ambassador. Shipping giants Maersk and CMA CGM continued to keep vessels away from the strait. Oil prices, which briefly fell toward $90 a barrel on Friday, surged back above $100.
Pakistan's mediation role has evolved into what Islamabad is now calling the "Islamabad Process" — a deliberate framing designed to project continuity over stalemate. Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir travelled to Tehran earlier this week to relay messages from Washington, while Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif conducted a parallel regional tour encompassing Jeddah, Doha and Antalya. Iran's ambassador to Islamabad left no ambiguity about Tehran's preferred venue: "We will do talks in Pakistan and nowhere else."
Yet well-informed sources close to The Levant Files caution against excessive optimism. Several regional actors — including parties with stakes in both the diplomatic and military outcome of the conflict — believe that the prospects for an imminent breakthrough remain limited. The structural gap between Washington's demand for the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear programme and Tehran's insistence on sovereignty and reciprocal guarantees has not narrowed in any meaningful way since the Islamabad talks collapsed.
Adding a further layer of complexity, TLF sources report that Iran has been quietly renewing its weapons stockpile in preparation for the possibility of a renewed military confrontation with the United States and its allies. The move signals that, despite the diplomatic pageantry, Tehran is not operating under the assumption that a deal is forthcoming.
Compounding Iran's internal pressure, reports have emerged of fresh infiltration attempts targeting the Iranian military and government — a recurring vulnerability that has become a significant source of anxiety within the Islamic Republic's security apparatus since the targeted assassinations that marked the opening of the war on February 28. Sources in Tehran insist that the situation is fully under control, but the combination of external military pressure, economic siege, a near-total internet blackout now entering its 51st day, and suspected intelligence penetration makes the Islamic Republic's negotiating posture more precarious than official statements suggest.
The second round of talks is expected to begin on Tuesday. Whether Iran formally sends a delegation — given its stated refusal to negotiate under blockade conditions — or whether Pakistan again serves as a courier between the two sides, remains the immediate unknown. The ceasefire expiry on April 22 makes the next 72 hours decisive.