The question of Afghanistan's willingness and capacity to participate in emerging energy and trade networks was the central focus of a recent one-day conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, organized by the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy (NLI). The event, held under the auspices of NLI's Central Asia Center and within the framework of the "Seven Silk Roads Plus" initiative, envisions a broader Central Asian economic community and the emergence of a powerful trade crescent stretching from the Caspian Basin to the Arabian Sea.
Participants acknowledged that Afghanistan represents the "elephant in the room" when it comes to realizing the Seven Silk Roads Plus concept. Multiple obstacles stand in the way of building pipelines, railways, and other infrastructure across Afghan territory — including the Taliban's tolerance of radical Islamist militant groups, the regime's discriminatory domestic policies, the bitter legacy of two decades of U.S. military presence, and the ongoing tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan.
Despite these challenges, prominent American regional expert and founder of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Frederick Starr, argued forcefully that Afghanistan must be woven into the fabric of a "Greater Central Asia" in order to unlock the region's full commercial potential in critical minerals, fossil fuels, and other commodities. Starr noted, as reported by the Iranian Tasnim News Agency, that Central Asian states are already quietly and "delicately" working to draw Afghanistan closer — and that all of them have recognized Taliban rule. He pointed out that Uzbekistan's annual trade with Afghanistan has already reached approximately $1.5 billion and is set to grow rapidly, while slow but steady progress is being made on the Trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline designed to link Turkmenistan with Pakistan and India.
Starr advocated for the United States to "step back" and allow Central Asian nations to manage their own relationships with Afghanistan independently, adding: "Afghanistan wants to be part of a greater Central Asia. The reality is far more dynamic and complex than we acknowledge, and changes are underway."
Other speakers were more cautious. Retired Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, who served across Central Asia and Pakistan over more than four decades of diplomatic service, acknowledged that geoeconomic projects like Seven Silk Roads Plus look logical on a map — but warned of "a difference between ideology and reality in policymaking." He equated ideology with unfounded optimism that ignores the complex cultural, historical, and on-the-ground factors that complicate such schemes. Under current conditions, Hoagland suggested, the Seven Silk Roads Plus concept may be more ideology than reality, at least from Afghanistan's perspective.
At its core, the Seven Silk Roads Plus is a multi-phase program aimed at strengthening Central Asian governance so the region can become a more effective negotiating partner and a more reliable investment destination. Phase one focuses on building a Central Asian economic community — modeled on ASEAN — that would allow regional states to speak with one voice in trade negotiations rather than five or six separate voices (including Azerbaijan, which recently joined the so-called C6 grouping). Phase two addresses the longstanding Central Asian aspiration for sea access, ultimately incorporating Afghanistan and Pakistan into the framework.
Ongoing Taliban-Pakistan tensions currently represent a formidable barrier to trans-Afghan infrastructure plans. Yet proponents of the initiative believe that regional economic imperatives will eventually compel leaders to set aside political and religious differences in favor of connectivity.
Ambassador Hoagland closed with a sobering reflection, quoted by the Iranian Tasnim News Agency: "In the end, history always moves at its own pace — and that pace can sometimes be painfully slow, and sometimes shockingly fast."