Russia is set to supply Tehran with new systems for producing suicide drones, while U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran's missile force survived the joint campaign far better than officials admit.
This picture emerges from a report filed from Nazareth for London-based Rai al-Youm by veteran Israeli-Arab affairs writer Zuhair Andraus, who draws on a series of American and Israeli leaks published late Friday and Saturday.
Thousands of missiles remain underground
Andraus writes that "day by day the dust clears" from the 40-day U.S.-Israeli offensive, and the emerging intelligence picture contradicts public victory claims.
Citing sources "familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence assessments" quoted by the Wall Street Journal overnight Friday into Saturday, Andraus reports that Iran still possesses an arsenal of thousands of ballistic missiles, and can bring launch platforms out of deep underground storage.
The sources are split on damage: some say many abandoned launchers are repairable or can be excavated, while others estimate more than half of Iran's launchers were destroyed, damaged, or trapped underground. Even after its stockpile was roughly halved during the war, Andraus notes, Tehran retains thousands of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles that can be pulled from bunkers.
A similar account appeared recently in the New York Times, Andraus adds, which reported that Iranian crews were able to reopen attacked bunkers and launch sites within hours. Israeli officials told that paper that about two-thirds of Iran's ballistic launchers were put "out of service" during the fighting, but acknowledged many could be recovered from underground. Those same officials put Iran's remaining medium-range inventory at more than 1,000 missiles, out of roughly 2,500 held at the war's start, with the rest fired or destroyed.
Drones gutted, but Moscow may refill
On drones, Andraus cites the same U.S. sources saying Iran now holds "far less than 50 percent" of the suicide UAVs it had at the start of the war, after heavy expenditure and U.S.-Israeli strikes on production sites.
The gap, he warns, may be temporary. The sources told the Journal that Tehran could obtain similar production systems from Russia and use them against neighbors, a point Andraus highlights in his headline.
Cruise missiles and the Gulf threat
Iran also retains a small stockpile of cruise missiles, according to the U.S. assessments relayed by Andraus. Those weapons could be used to hit ships in the Persian Gulf or U.S. forces if they tried to seize islands in the region, should the current talks fail.
Washington's "Practically Destroyed" Claim
Andraus contrasts those assessments with official U.S. messaging earlier this week. He notes that U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed at a press conference that Iran's missile program was "practically destroyed," with launchers and missiles "reduced, destroyed, and rendered almost useless."
On Wednesday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Kane went further, saying airstrikes had "destroyed the Iranian defense industrial base," after the U.S. dropped more than 13,000 bombs on missile and drone storage, the Iranian navy, and defense industries, "to ensure Iran cannot restore its ability to project power beyond its borders."
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly, quoted by Andraus, called it a "brilliant military success" that enabled Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner "to negotiate with maximum leverage to end threats facing U.S. forces and our homeland."
A CENTCOM spokesman declined to comment on the Journal report, referring only to prior senior officer statements, Andraus writes.
What Israel says now
Israeli officials, also cited in the Journal, tell a more cautious story, according to Andraus. They assess Iran cannot currently produce additional missiles, and that the pace of any rebuild will depend on the type of assistance Tehran receives from Russia or China.
U.S. experts interviewed by the Journal do not believe Iran will soon restore pre-war missile and drone numbers because of damage to its military industry, but some in the administration expect Tehran will still be able to operate some ballistic launchers.
Sanctions and the Islamabad Talks
Andraus closes by linking the military balance to diplomacy. The Journal, he writes, stressed that curbing Iran's future capabilities depends not only on the threat of new U.S.-Israeli strikes, but also on sanctions. One of Tehran's core demands in the war-ending negotiations is the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions that block other countries' trade with Iran.
With U.S.-Iran talks expected later today in Islamabad, Pakistan, Andraus cites a separate Washington Post report from Friday night saying the Trump administration intends to demand the release of Americans detained in Iran as part of the negotiations, according to sources familiar with Washington's plans.